Veres

A case on GGDROP (partners), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$30.00

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $27.60 from 68 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.17%

551 openings, odds method

Variance

30.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

63.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94 openings · below min

7 days

88.00%±37.89454 openings

30 days

86.17%±31.46551 openings

since tracking started

86.17%±31.46551 openings

-0.5%98.3%197.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	94	83.07%±113.3	—	odds
7d	454	88.00%±37.9	−0.2σ	odds
30d	551	86.17%±31.5	−0.4σ	odds
All	551	86.17%±31.5	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 553 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,667	$13.2K	7.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,667	$742	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$653	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 6,667	$638	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$557	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,250	$459	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,091	$416	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,250	$412	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,667	$394	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$393	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$348	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$319	0.1%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$313	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$265	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$250	0.1%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$242	0.1%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$236	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$224	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$223	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 10,000	$209	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,556	$200	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,000	$199	0.1%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$199	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$197	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$193	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$189	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 6,667	$189	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$179	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$175	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 6,667	$164	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 6,250	$154	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$150	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$134	0.1%	1	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 8,333	$123	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$120	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 7,143	$115	0.1%	1	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$105	0.1%	6	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 5,000	$104	0.1%	1	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 763	$103	0.5%	0	0.7	—
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 280	$102	1.3%	0	2.0	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 197	$102	1.9%	1	2.8	0.36×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 185	$97.89	1.9%	2	3.0	0.67×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · Immortal	1 in 741	$93.56	0.5%	3	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 146	$83.95	2.1%	3	3.8	0.79×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 190	$83.51	1.6%	1	2.9	0.34×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 137	$75.01	2.0%	9	4.0	2.23×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 66	$73.80	4.0%	7	8.3	0.84×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$65.20	3.6%	11	8.5	1.30×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$49.06	3.0%	12	9.4	1.28×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 66	$48.45	2.6%	7	8.3	0.84×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 41	$44.45	3.9%	16	13.6	1.18×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 36	$42.97	4.3%	12	15.2	0.79×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 47	$41.65	3.2%	18	11.9	1.52×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$35.57	2.4%	12	10.2	1.17×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 49	$35.30	2.6%	12	11.2	1.07×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 39	$34.43	3.2%	17	14.3	1.19×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$33.83	3.8%	7	17.0	0.41×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 39	$33.73	3.1%	12	14.1	0.85×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 33	$31.79	3.5%	21	16.6	1.27×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 26	$30.96	4.3%	16	21.3	0.75×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 22	$28.25	4.7%	16	25.2	0.63×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 20	$27.39	5.0%	25	27.9	0.90×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$14.00	3.5%	33	38.1	0.87×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$13.63	4.2%	44	46.8	0.94×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink	10.0%	$8.17	3.0%	69	55.5	1.24×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	12.0%	$7.60	3.3%	46	66.3	0.69×
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$7.35	1.9%	69	40.3	1.71×
MP7 \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$7.28	2.4%	41	49.8	0.82×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/veres, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertIndiferent$30.00$41.701.39x55m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedIndiferent$30.00$27.350.91x55m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pinkTau$30.00$8.150.27x3h

★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · ImmortalTau$30.00$93.773.13x3h

MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New)weapon · classifiedTau$30.00$64.862.16x3h

AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertTau$30.00$44.401.48x3h

AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkTau$30.00$7.560.25x3h

MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMashiro GGDROP$30.00$64.862.16x3h

MP7 | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedCapo$30.00$7.260.24x3h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedCapo$30.00$27.930.93x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$30.00	92.07%	68
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$30.00	92.03%	68
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$30.00	92.04%	68
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$30.00	92.03%	68
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$30.00	92.06%	68
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$30.00	92.07%	68
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$30.00	92.06%	68
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$30.00	92.03%	68
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$30.00	92.05%	68
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$30.00	92.09%	68
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$30.00	92.02%	68
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$30.00	92.06%	68
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$30.00	92.09%	68
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	68
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$30.00	92.04%	68
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$30.00	92.08%	68
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$30.00	92.06%	68

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 17.1%extraordinary 0.1%covert 15.2%#8847ff 0.0%classified 21.9%Classified 8.1%#d32ee6 3.0%pink 22.1%covert knife 0.0%Mythical 0.7%Immortal 0.1%violet 0.5%Ancient 8.6%red 2.5%best hit —