P250 Case

A case on Hellcase (devices), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$2.00

Advertised RTP

87.92%

EV $1.76 from 307 items

Observed RTP, 30d

132.57%

726 openings, odds method

Variance

8.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

64 openings · below min

7 days

132.86%±23.36609 openings

30 days

132.57%±21.40726 openings

since tracking started

132.57%±21.40726 openings

-0.5%78.3%157.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.99% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (111.17% – 153.97%, 726 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	64	48.97%±71.8	—	odds
7d	609	132.86%±23.4	+3.8σ	odds
30d	726	132.57%±21.4	+4.1σ	odds
All	726	132.57%±21.4	+4.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values307 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 729 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100,000	$553	0.3%	1	0.0	—
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$443	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$192	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 100,000	$188	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$164	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$142	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 100,000	$139	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$131	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$130	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$129	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$124	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Splash (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14,286	$114	0.5%	2	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 12,500	$95.87	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$90.18	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$85.62	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 11,111	$83.51	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 9,091	$72.63	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Splash (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,091	$66.78	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Digital Architect (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 8,333	$66.61	0.5%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 8,333	$65.32	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 8,333	$62.63	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Red Rock (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,692	$60.52	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Digital Architect (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,692	$60.08	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 6,667	$54.89	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 7,143	$54.72	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Facets (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 6,667	$51.30	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 6,250	$48.79	0.4%	1	0.1	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 5,882	$47.87	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$47.35	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 5,882	$47.00	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 5,882	$46.33	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$44.93	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$44.27	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$43.12	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$42.80	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,263	$41.88	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$41.81	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 5,000	$40.99	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,263	$40.70	0.4%	1	0.1	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 5,263	$40.54	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 5,263	$40.39	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 5,000	$39.36	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$39.30	0.4%	1	0.1	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 5,000	$39.13	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$38.32	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Red Rock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 5,000	$38.29	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 4,762	$37.65	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Modern Hunter (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,762	$37.31	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Splash (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$36.62	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$35.71	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$35.06	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,348	$34.32	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$33.86	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$31.77	0.5%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,000	$31.07	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$29.69	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Undertow (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 3,571	$28.57	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Red Rock (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,571	$28.46	0.5%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$27.27	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Red Rock (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,226	$25.49	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,125	$24.94	0.5%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,125	$24.66	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 3,030	$24.32	0.5%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Splash (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,941	$23.53	0.5%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,941	$23.52	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$22.50	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Red Rock (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,778	$21.93	0.4%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,703	$21.41	0.5%	1	0.3	—
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 2,703	$21.01	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$20.85	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$20.66	0.4%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Red Rock (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 2,564	$20.46	0.5%	1	0.3	—
P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,564	$20.43	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 2,500	$19.85	0.5%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,326	$18.65	0.5%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 2,326	$18.48	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$18.39	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,273	$18.08	0.5%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$17.71	0.5%	1	0.3	—
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,222	$17.64	0.5%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,222	$17.53	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$17.49	0.5%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Facets (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,222	$17.37	0.4%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,174	$17.29	0.5%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 2,174	$17.26	0.5%	1	0.3	—
P250 \| Mehndi (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$17.14	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,128	$17.00	0.5%	1	0.3	—
P250 \| Red Rock (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,083	$16.52	0.5%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 2,041	$16.45	0.5%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Red Rock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,041	$16.14	0.4%	1	0.4	—
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$15.85	0.5%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,961	$15.46	0.4%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,887	$15.16	0.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Red Rock (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,923	$15.16	0.4%	2	0.4	—
P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 1,923	$15.10	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,887	$14.97	0.5%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,887	$14.95	0.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,887	$14.66	0.4%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,818	$14.25	0.4%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,818	$14.22	0.4%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,786	$14.07	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,754	$13.91	0.5%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Red Rock (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,754	$13.90	0.5%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 1,754	$13.89	0.5%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,724	$13.82	0.5%	1	0.4	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,724	$13.60	0.4%	1	0.4	—
P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,639	$12.95	0.4%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,538	$12.14	0.4%	0	0.5	—
P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,515	$12.12	0.5%	0	0.5	—
P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,449	$11.43	0.4%	2	0.5	—
P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,449	$11.37	0.4%	0	0.5	—
P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 1,370	$10.91	0.5%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,282	$10.17	0.5%	1	0.6	—
P250 \| Epicenter (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,282	$10.14	0.4%	0	0.6	—
P250 \| Contamination (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,282	$10.12	0.4%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,266	$10.04	0.5%	1	0.6	—
P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 1,266	$10.04	0.5%	1	0.6	—
P250 \| Facets (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,235	$9.83	0.5%	0	0.6	—
P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,205	$9.53	0.4%	0	0.6	—
P250 \| Visions (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,205	$9.50	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,205	$9.48	0.4%	1	0.6	—
P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,176	$9.33	0.5%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,163	$9.20	0.4%	0	0.6	—
P250 \| Dark Filigree (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,149	$9.07	0.4%	0	0.6	—
P250 \| Iron Clad (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,075	$8.55	0.5%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Hive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 901	$7.16	0.5%	1	0.8	—
P250 \| Inferno (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 909	$7.13	0.4%	0	0.8	—
P250 \| Hive (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 877	$6.93	0.4%	2	0.8	—
P250 \| Black & Tan (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 877	$6.91	0.4%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 870	$6.84	0.4%	0	0.8	—
P250 \| Dark Filigree (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 862	$6.83	0.5%	1	0.8	—
P250 \| Dark Filigree (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 855	$6.75	0.4%	2	0.9	—
P250 \| Dark Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 800	$6.35	0.5%	1	0.9	—
P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 787	$6.27	0.5%	1	0.9	—
P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 781	$6.18	0.4%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 694	$5.48	0.4%	1	1.0	0.95×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 690	$5.46	0.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
P250 \| Facets (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 685	$5.40	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 680	$5.39	0.5%	2	1.1	1.87×
P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 680	$5.38	0.4%	2	1.1	1.87×
P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 680	$5.37	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 671	$5.29	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 637	$5.03	0.4%	1	1.1	0.87×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 629	$4.98	0.5%	1	1.2	0.86×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 621	$4.92	0.5%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cyber Shell (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 617	$4.88	0.4%	3	1.2	2.54×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 610	$4.85	0.5%	2	1.2	1.67×
P250 \| Dark Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 613	$4.85	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
P250 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 610	$4.82	0.4%	2	1.2	1.67×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Iron Clad (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 599	$4.73	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Hive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 595	$4.71	0.4%	3	1.2	2.45×
P250 \| Black & Tan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 585	$4.65	0.5%	1	1.2	0.80×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 585	$4.64	0.5%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 571	$4.53	0.5%	2	1.3	1.57×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 559	$4.43	0.5%	0	1.3	0.00×
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 556	$4.40	0.5%	2	1.3	1.52×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 549	$4.33	0.4%	5	1.3	3.77×
P250 \| Visions (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 538	$4.25	0.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
P250 \| Facets (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 535	$4.25	0.5%	0	1.4	0.00×
P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 526	$4.16	0.4%	1	1.4	0.72×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 510	$4.03	0.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 495	$3.91	0.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 481	$3.80	0.4%	1	1.5	0.66×
P250 \| Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 476	$3.76	0.4%	2	1.5	1.31×
P250 \| Contamination (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 472	$3.74	0.5%	1	1.5	0.65×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 467	$3.69	0.4%	0	1.6	0.00×
P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 461	$3.64	0.4%	1	1.6	0.63×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 459	$3.62	0.4%	1	1.6	0.63×
P250 \| Supernova (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 452	$3.58	0.4%	0	1.6	0.00×
P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 442	$3.50	0.4%	2	1.6	1.21×
P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 427	$3.38	0.4%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 426	$3.36	0.4%	2	1.7	1.17×
P250 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 422	$3.34	0.5%	0	1.7	0.00×
P250 \| Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 418	$3.30	0.4%	3	1.7	1.72×
P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 391	$3.09	0.4%	1	1.9	0.54×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 382	$3.01	0.4%	2	1.9	1.05×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 379	$3.00	0.5%	1	1.9	0.52×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 376	$2.97	0.4%	3	1.9	1.55×
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 373	$2.95	0.4%	2	2.0	1.02×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 365	$2.89	0.5%	0	2.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 361	$2.86	0.5%	5	2.0	2.48×
P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 341	$2.70	0.4%	2	2.1	0.94×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 325	$2.57	0.5%	6	2.2	2.67×
P250 \| Supernova (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 323	$2.55	0.4%	9	2.3	3.98×
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 318	$2.52	0.4%	2	2.3	0.87×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 312	$2.46	0.4%	0	2.3	0.00×
P250 \| Contamination (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 291	$2.30	0.4%	4	2.5	1.60×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 290	$2.29	0.4%	2	2.5	0.80×
P250 \| Exchanger (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 272	$2.16	0.5%	2	2.7	0.75×
P250 \| Gunsmoke (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 272	$2.15	0.4%	1	2.7	0.37×
P250 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 263	$2.08	0.4%	8	2.8	2.89×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 262	$2.07	0.4%	6	2.8	2.15×
P250 \| Contamination (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 258	$2.04	0.5%	5	2.8	1.77×
P250 \| Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 255	$2.02	0.5%	3	2.9	1.05×
P250 \| Contamination (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 253	$2.00	0.4%	3	2.9	1.04×
StatTrak™ P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 235	$1.86	0.5%	4	3.1	1.29×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 231	$1.83	0.5%	1	3.2	0.32×
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 230	$1.82	0.4%	0	3.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 227	$1.80	0.5%	4	3.2	1.25×
StatTrak™ P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 225	$1.78	0.4%	2	3.2	0.62×
P250 \| Gunsmoke (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 222	$1.76	0.5%	4	3.3	1.22×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 800	$1.71	0.1%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 800	$1.71	0.1%	3	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Verdigris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 769	$1.64	0.1%	2	0.9	—
P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 746	$1.60	0.1%	1	1.0	—
P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 719	$1.55	0.1%	1	1.0	0.99×
P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 685	$1.46	0.1%	2	1.1	1.88×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 671	$1.44	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 649	$1.39	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 641	$1.38	0.1%	1	1.1	0.88×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 633	$1.36	0.1%	2	1.2	1.74×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 581	$1.24	0.1%	2	1.3	1.60×
P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 562	$1.20	0.1%	2	1.3	1.54×
P250 \| Verdigris (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 559	$1.20	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 556	$1.19	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 549	$1.18	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 546	$1.17	0.1%	1	1.3	0.75×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 524	$1.12	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 510	$1.09	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 510	$1.09	0.1%	2	1.4	1.40×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 495	$1.06	0.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
P250 \| Contaminant (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 483	$1.03	0.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 459	$0.98	0.1%	2	1.6	1.26×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 459	$0.98	0.1%	2	1.6	1.26×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 452	$0.97	0.1%	3	1.6	1.86×
P250 \| Contaminant (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 442	$0.95	0.1%	6	1.6	3.64×
P250 \| Small Game (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 444	$0.95	0.1%	1	1.6	0.61×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Re.built (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 431	$0.92	0.1%	2	1.7	1.18×
P250 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 422	$0.90	0.1%	1	1.7	0.58×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 410	$0.88	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 402	$0.86	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
P250 \| Contaminant (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 397	$0.85	0.1%	1	1.8	0.54×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 392	$0.84	0.1%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Iron Clad (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 392	$0.84	0.1%	2	1.9	1.08×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Verdigris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 392	$0.84	0.1%	0	1.9	0.00×
P250 \| Inferno (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 388	$0.83	0.1%	2	1.9	1.06×
P250 \| Ripple (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 383	$0.82	0.1%	3	1.9	1.58×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cassette (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 383	$0.82	0.1%	1	1.9	0.53×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cyber Shell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 375	$0.80	0.1%	3	1.9	1.54×
P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 369	$0.79	0.1%	4	2.0	2.02×
P250 \| Inferno (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 364	$0.78	0.1%	3	2.0	1.50×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 355	$0.76	0.1%	2	2.1	0.97×
P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 345	$0.74	0.1%	1	2.1	0.47×
P250 \| Iron Clad (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 331	$0.71	0.1%	5	2.2	2.27×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 332	$0.71	0.1%	1	2.2	0.46×
P250 \| Ripple (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 317	$0.68	0.1%	2	2.3	0.87×
P250 \| Ripple (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 317	$0.68	0.1%	1	2.3	0.44×
P250 \| Ripple (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 317	$0.68	0.1%	2	2.3	0.87×
P250 \| Re.built (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 308	$0.66	0.1%	5	2.4	2.11×
P250 \| Exchanger (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 308	$0.66	0.1%	3	2.4	1.27×
P250 \| Iron Clad (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 304	$0.65	0.1%	2	2.4	0.83×
P250 \| Ripple (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 299	$0.64	0.1%	3	2.4	1.23×
P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 252	$0.54	0.1%	3	2.9	1.04×
P250 \| Iron Clad (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 252	$0.54	0.1%	7	2.9	2.42×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 248	$0.53	0.1%	5	2.9	1.70×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 248	$0.53	0.1%	1	2.9	0.34×
P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 248	$0.53	0.1%	2	2.9	0.68×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 239	$0.51	0.1%	6	3.1	1.96×
P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 238	$0.51	0.1%	3	3.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 224	$0.48	0.1%	2	3.3	0.62×
P250 \| Iron Clad (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 224	$0.48	0.1%	5	3.3	1.54×
P250 \| Small Game (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 224	$0.48	0.1%	3	3.3	0.92×
P250 \| Verdigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 211	$0.45	0.1%	4	3.5	1.16×
P250 \| Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 210	$0.45	0.1%	1	3.5	0.29×
P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 205	$0.44	0.1%	4	3.6	1.13×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 205	$0.44	0.1%	1	3.6	0.28×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 201	$0.43	0.1%	4	3.6	1.10×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 196	$0.42	0.1%	4	3.7	1.08×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 196	$0.42	0.1%	4	3.7	1.08×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Iron Clad (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 192	$0.41	0.1%	4	3.8	1.05×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Verdigris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 192	$0.41	0.1%	3	3.8	0.79×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 192	$0.41	0.1%	7	3.8	1.84×
P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 187	$0.40	0.1%	2	3.9	0.51×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Iron Clad (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 178	$0.38	0.1%	1	4.1	0.24×
P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 173	$0.37	0.1%	5	4.2	1.19×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Iron Clad (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 173	$0.37	0.1%	11	4.2	2.61×
P250 \| Cassette (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 173	$0.37	0.1%	9	4.2	2.13×
P250 \| Verdigris (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 168	$0.36	0.1%	2	4.3	0.46×
P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 163	$0.35	0.1%	2	4.5	0.45×
P250 \| Small Game (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 163	$0.35	0.1%	5	4.5	1.12×
P250 \| Small Game (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 164	$0.35	0.1%	3	4.5	0.67×
P250 \| Small Game (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 154	$0.33	0.1%	5	4.7	1.06×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cassette (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 145	$0.31	0.1%	9	5.0	1.79×
P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 103	$0.22	0.1%	4	7.1	0.56×
P250 \| Exchanger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 103	$0.22	0.1%	5	7.1	0.70×
P250 \| Red Tide (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 98	$0.21	0.1%	5	7.4	0.67×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Re.built (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 98	$0.21	0.1%	7	7.4	0.94×
P250 \| Exchanger (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 93	$0.20	0.1%	4	7.8	0.51×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 93	$0.20	0.1%	4	7.8	0.51×
P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 93	$0.20	0.1%	5	7.8	0.64×
P250 \| Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 84	$0.18	0.1%	8	8.7	0.92×
P250 \| Cassette (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 84	$0.18	0.1%	8	8.7	0.92×
P250 \| Exchanger (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 84	$0.18	0.1%	6	8.7	0.69×
P250 \| Constructivist (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 84	$0.18	0.1%	13	8.7	1.50×
P250 \| Re.built (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 75	$0.16	0.1%	3	9.8	0.31×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cassette (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 70	$0.15	0.1%	5	10.4	0.48×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 70	$0.15	0.1%	17	10.4	1.63×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cassette (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 65	$0.14	0.1%	10	11.2	0.90×
P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 61	$0.13	0.1%	11	12.0	0.92×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Re.built (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 56	$0.12	0.1%	14	13.0	1.08×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Re.built (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 47	$0.10	0.1%	15	15.6	0.96×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Re.built (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 47	$0.10	0.1%	13	15.6	0.83×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 28	$0.06	0.1%	27	26.0	1.04×
P250 \| Constructivist (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 28	$0.06	0.1%	34	26.0	1.31×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 19	$0.04	0.1%	41	39.0	1.05×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 19	$0.04	0.1%	44	39.0	1.13×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 14	$0.03	0.1%	55	52.0	1.06×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/p250, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

P250 | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil specHUNTER_2812$2.00$553276.6x4d

StatTrak™ P250 | Splash (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted@100%@M*S___$2.00$11457.11x3d

StatTrak™ P250 | Splash (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted@100%@M*S___$2.00$11457.11x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Exchanger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecLord_Gaheris$2.00$0.220.11x20m

P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff♱ ᴋɪᴄᴏᴊʙᴛ$2.00$0.180.09x30m

P250 | Sedimentary (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9♱ ᴋɪᴄᴏᴊʙᴛ$2.00$0.040.02x30m

StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec♱ ᴋɪᴄᴏᴊʙᴛ$2.00$0.970.49x30m

P250 | Sedimentary (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9Maldini$2.00$0.040.02x2h

P250 | Red Tide (Well-Worn)weapon · blueSIBSIG Tosuko$2.00$0.210.11x2h

P250 | Sedimentary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9SIBSIG Tosuko$2.00$0.040.02x2h

StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecL.M$2.00$0.120.06x2h

P250 | Contamination (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialMr_Voron(UA).$2.00$2.041.02x6h

P250 | Sedimentary (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9Josama Zynladin$2.00$0.040.02x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$2.00	87.92%	307
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$2.00	88.00%	307
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$2.00	88.00%	307
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$2.00	87.94%	307
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$2.00	87.97%	307
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$2.00	88.00%	307
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$2.00	88.00%	307
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$2.00	88.02%	307
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$2.00	87.96%	307
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$2.00	87.93%	307
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$2.00	88.02%	307
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$2.00	87.95%	307

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.2%mil spec 3.9%restricted 8.8%covert 0.0%milspec 29.7%Classified 0.0%Legendary 0.6%classified 2.4%pink 1.0%#4b69ff 4.3%industrial 5.9%Mil Spec Grade 0.9%#8847ff 1.9%Mythical 1.1%#d32ce6 0.3%rare 0.1%blue 5.2%Restricted 1.3%#d32ee6 0.5%violet 1.3%Rare 1.3%#87c7ff 0.2%uncommon 0.2%Industrial Grade 0.1%Uncommon 0.7%#5e98d9 27.2%best hit $553 (276.6x)