Poultry

A case on Hellcase (chicken-raise), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$60.00

Advertised RTP

87.99%

EV $52.80 from 133 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.94%

138 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

13 openings · below min

7 days

90.44%±23.02134 openings

30 days

88.94%±22.68138 openings

since tracking started

88.94%±22.68138 openings

-0.5%66.8%134.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	13	58.67%±74.5	—	odds
7d	134	90.44%±23.0	+0.2σ	odds
30d	138	88.94%±22.7	+0.1σ	odds
All	138	88.94%±22.7	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values133 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 138 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,263	$1,619	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,519	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,506	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$1,403	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rare	1 in 4,348	$1,320	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,381	$722	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$681	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,083	$644	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$590	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal	1 in 1,852	$576	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,724	$519	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,695	$518	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,613	$499	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,639	$497	0.6%	2	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,562	$478	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$463	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,471	$449	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$432	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,408	$429	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,389	$424	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$414	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,333	$411	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,316	$398	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,220	$374	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,220	$372	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,149	$352	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,124	$343	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,099	$334	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,087	$329	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,064	$324	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 980	$302	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 980	$297	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 952	$292	0.6%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 943	$289	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 893	$273	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 826	$251	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 781	$238	0.6%	1	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 746	$228	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 746	$228	0.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 725	$221	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 694	$213	0.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 685	$209	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 685	$208	0.6%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 610	$187	0.6%	1	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 575	$176	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 562	$172	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 556	$170	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 549	$168	0.6%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 546	$167	0.6%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 541	$165	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 538	$164	0.6%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 521	$159	0.6%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 521	$159	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 505	$155	0.6%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 503	$153	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 500	$153	0.6%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 488	$149	0.6%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 476	$145	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 465	$142	0.6%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 463	$141	0.6%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 463	$141	0.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 461	$141	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 457	$140	0.6%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 427	$130	0.6%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 424	$130	0.6%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 422	$129	0.6%	1	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 413	$126	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 395	$121	0.6%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 388	$118	0.6%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 386	$118	0.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 383	$117	0.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 373	$114	0.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 372	$113	0.6%	1	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 370	$113	0.6%	1	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 369	$113	0.6%	2	0.4	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 365	$112	0.6%	0	0.4	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 365	$112	0.6%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 347	$106	0.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 344	$105	0.6%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 339	$104	0.6%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 338	$103	0.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 336	$103	0.6%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$102	0.6%	0	0.4	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 326	$99.69	0.6%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 313	$95.74	0.6%	0	0.4	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 312	$95.08	0.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 310	$94.53	0.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 305	$93.02	0.6%	2	0.5	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 305	$92.86	0.6%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 292	$89.33	0.6%	0	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 287	$87.81	0.6%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 269	$81.90	0.6%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 267	$81.69	0.6%	0	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 263	$80.50	0.6%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 263	$80.27	0.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 262	$80.14	0.6%	0	0.5	—
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 247	$75.37	0.6%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 243	$74.30	0.6%	0	0.6	—
SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 227	$69.14	0.6%	1	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 223	$68.03	0.6%	1	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$67.94	0.6%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 216	$65.92	0.6%	0	0.6	—
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 215	$65.51	0.6%	0	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 209	$63.79	0.6%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 201	$61.33	0.6%	1	0.7	—
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 195	$59.55	0.6%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 65	$49.49	1.4%	2	2.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 63	$47.76	1.4%	2	2.2	0.91×
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$41.90	1.4%	3	2.5	1.20×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$38.39	1.4%	5	2.7	1.84×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 51	$38.32	1.4%	2	2.7	0.73×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Afterimage (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 50	$37.83	1.4%	4	2.8	1.45×
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$37.41	1.4%	3	2.8	1.07×
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 48	$36.15	1.4%	5	2.9	1.73×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 44	$32.95	1.4%	1	3.2	0.32×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$30.02	1.4%	2	3.5	0.57×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$29.60	1.4%	4	3.5	1.13×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$29.47	1.4%	4	3.5	1.13×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$28.52	1.4%	7	3.7	1.91×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 37	$27.74	1.4%	3	3.8	0.80×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 36	$27.48	1.4%	2	3.8	0.53×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$26.96	1.4%	3	3.9	0.77×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$24.66	1.4%	3	4.2	0.71×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 32	$24.40	1.4%	7	4.3	1.64×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$23.99	1.4%	10	4.4	2.30×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$23.72	1.4%	1	4.4	0.23×
P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$23.52	1.4%	4	4.4	0.90×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 30	$22.50	1.4%	6	4.6	1.29×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 27	$20.23	1.4%	6	5.2	1.16×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 26	$19.63	1.4%	5	5.3	0.94×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$19.47	1.4%	5	5.4	0.93×
MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 21	$15.79	1.4%	4	6.6	0.60×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$10.91	1.4%	9	9.6	0.94×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/poultry, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertSTM$60.00$5218.69x6d

★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertzat$60.00$5098.48x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedpisika$60.00$24.400.41x13m

Galil AR | Cerberus (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedkronyii$60.00$29.470.49x6h

CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedkronyii$60.00$26.960.45x6h

MP7 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restrictedkronyii$60.00$15.790.26x6h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6kronyii$60.00$37.830.63x6h

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rarekronyii$60.00$49.490.82x6h

M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedシ | 𝖈𝖆𝖑𝖎𝖓 ★ K$60.00$37.410.62x8h

Galil AR | Cerberus (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedThe courier$60.00$29.470.49x11h

M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · RestrictedKW1AT$60.00$36.150.60x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$60.00	87.99%	133
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$60.00	87.97%	133
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$60.00	87.72%	133
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$60.00	88.01%	133
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$60.00	88.02%	133
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$60.00	88.00%	133
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$60.00	87.99%	133
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$60.00	88.00%	133
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$60.00	88.00%	133
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$60.00	87.90%	133
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$60.00	87.98%	133
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$60.00	88.01%	133

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 2.1%covert 9.5%rare 2.0%covert knife 0.4%classified 35.6%Immortal 0.2%red 2.0%Covert 0.3%restricted 14.6%Mythical 0.7%pink 10.3%#d32ee6 5.7%Restricted 6.9%Classified 2.7%violet 6.9%best hit $521 (8.69x)