Riptide Tiger

A case on Hellcase (skin-families), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$40.00

Advertised RTP

88.02%

EV $35.21 from 125 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.66%

44 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

31 openings · below min

30 days

44 openings · below min

since tracking started

44 openings · below min

-0.5%95.8%192.0%

Small sample. 44 openings and 13.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	77.04%±114.2	—	odds
7d	31	92.84%±36.9	—	odds
30d	44	83.66%±30.7	—	odds
All	44	83.66%±30.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values125 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$763	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$540	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$470	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$463	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$444	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$414	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$402	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$389	0.4%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,941	$363	0.4%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,941	$361	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,941	$358	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,857	$350	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$343	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,703	$324	0.3%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,500	$303	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,439	$297	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,381	$292	0.3%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,381	$290	0.3%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,326	$288	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,326	$285	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,273	$279	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,273	$277	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,222	$274	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,222	$273	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,041	$253	0.4%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,041	$249	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$243	0.3%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$242	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,923	$235	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,887	$232	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$213	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,724	$209	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$208	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,639	$199	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$196	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,562	$191	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,408	$174	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,408	$173	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$168	0.3%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,333	$164	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,333	$164	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$159	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$157	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$153	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$153	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,250	$153	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,235	$151	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,220	$149	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$149	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,205	$148	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,190	$145	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,163	$142	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,149	$142	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 1,149	$140	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,149	$140	0.3%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,111	$135	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,020	$125	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$123	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$123	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 990	$121	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 990	$121	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 971	$119	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 926	$114	0.3%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 926	$113	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 917	$113	0.3%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 917	$112	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 909	$111	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 909	$111	0.3%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 909	$111	0.3%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 901	$111	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 909	$111	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 909	$111	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 877	$107	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 781	$95.68	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Orion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 769	$94.47	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 763	$93.56	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 714	$87.67	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 694	$84.88	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 671	$81.90	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 667	$81.41	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 654	$80.27	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 654	$79.96	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 621	$75.78	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 568	$69.71	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 562	$68.56	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 556	$67.94	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Orion (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 543	$66.73	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 535	$65.17	0.3%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 505	$61.76	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 503	$61.54	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$61.33	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 500	$61.20	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 483	$59.07	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 459	$55.97	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 457	$55.81	0.3%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 448	$55.00	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 429	$52.46	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 415	$50.94	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 408	$50.10	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 405	$49.54	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 397	$48.57	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 382	$46.74	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 379	$46.51	0.3%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 379	$46.31	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 377	$46.23	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 370	$45.31	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 368	$45.07	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 368	$45.02	0.3%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 368	$44.96	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 362	$44.46	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 360	$44.08	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 326	$40.00	0.3%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$30.26	4.7%	5	2.4	2.08×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$29.64	4.7%	7	2.5	2.85×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 18	$29.04	4.7%	1	2.5	0.40×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$28.87	4.7%	2	2.5	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$28.77	4.7%	1	2.5	0.40×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$27.85	4.7%	2	2.6	0.77×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$26.92	4.7%	4	2.7	1.48×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 16	$26.19	4.7%	3	2.8	1.08×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 16	$26.14	4.7%	4	2.8	1.44×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14	$23.89	4.7%	2	3.0	0.66×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$23.52	4.7%	3	3.1	0.97×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10	$17.01	4.7%	6	4.3	1.40×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.3%	$16.08	4.7%	0	4.5	0.00×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/riptide-tiger, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedDzony$40.00$23.520.59x14h

SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified𝕯𝖎𝖒𝖎$40.00$30.260.76x16h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedFlav'$40.00$23.890.60x17h

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedKAMISIMA$19.00$29.421.55x18h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified󠁳$40.00$23.890.60x1d

SSG 08 | Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified󠁳$40.00$17.010.43x1d

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedB?OVO$40.00$26.920.67x1d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert0ctopo$40.00$1142.84x1d

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedHypnos$40.00$26.140.65x2d

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHypnos$40.00$26.920.67x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$40.00	88.02%	125
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$40.00	88.02%	125
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$40.00	87.98%	125
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$40.00	87.99%	125
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$40.00	87.99%	125
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$40.00	87.99%	125
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$40.00	88.00%	125
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$40.00	87.99%	125
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$40.00	87.92%	125
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$40.00	88.01%	125
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$40.00	88.01%	125

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 47.9%covert 6.9%restricted 20.9%Legendary 0.1%Covert 0.2%#d32ee6 0.1%red 0.3%#eb4b4b 0.3%Ancient 0.1%violet 5.8%Classified 0.6%milspec 0.3%#d32ce6 6.3%mil spec 10.3%best hit —