ANDERS

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$149.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $130.37 from 79 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.93%

3,093 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.41%±9.55523 openings

7 days

81.91%±4.442,529 openings

30 days

82.93%±4.003,093 openings

since tracking started

82.93%±4.003,093 openings

77.0%89.3%101.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.46% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.92% – 86.93%, 3,093 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	523	91.41%±9.55	+0.8σ	odds
7d	2,529	81.91%±4.44	−2.5σ	odds
30d	3,093	82.93%±4.00	−2.2σ	odds
All	3,093	82.93%±4.00	−2.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values79 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,093 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$5,557	1.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 714	$1,380	1.5%	4	4.3	0.92×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 526	$1,033	1.5%	1	5.9	0.17×
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 455	$893	1.5%	12	6.8	1.76×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$735	0.4%	2	2.2	0.92×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$544	2.1%	11	15.5	0.71×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 476	$541	0.9%	2	6.5	0.31×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$480	2.4%	11	19.8	0.56×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 60	$464	6.0%	48	52.0	0.92×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 48	$374	6.0%	60	64.3	0.93×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · gold · Phase 3	1 in 67	$365	4.2%	40	46.1	0.87×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 270	$338	1.0%	8	11.4	0.70×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 62	$336	4.2%	56	50.1	1.12×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 833	$294	0.3%	3	3.7	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 476	$289	0.5%	2	6.5	0.31×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 455	$278	0.5%	3	6.8	0.44×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 182	$276	1.2%	11	17.0	0.65×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 49	$264	4.2%	54	63.7	0.85×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 47	$258	4.2%	59	65.3	0.90×
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 47	$254	4.2%	51	66.2	0.77×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$223	1.4%	7	25.7	0.27×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 118	$220	1.4%	14	26.3	0.53×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 101	$220	1.7%	20	30.6	0.65×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$214	2.1%	26	38.7	0.67×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 105	$193	1.4%	15	29.4	0.51×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 149	$190	1.0%	14	20.7	0.68×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 93	$182	1.5%	20	33.1	0.60×
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$179	2.1%	35	47.3	0.74×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$169	1.9%	38	45.2	0.84×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 47	$164	2.7%	49	65.9	0.74×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$156	0.4%	10	9.9	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$154	0.9%	20	24.7	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 119	$154	1.0%	15	26.0	0.58×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$153	1.2%	41	32.2	1.27×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 92	$150	1.3%	18	33.7	0.53×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 79	$148	1.4%	35	39.3	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$146	0.8%	16	21.7	0.74×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 114	$145	1.0%	27	27.2	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 139	$144	0.8%	28	22.3	1.26×
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 56	$143	2.0%	49	55.4	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 141	$142	0.8%	17	22.0	0.77×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 133	$136	0.8%	21	23.2	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$133	0.8%	15	24.7	0.61×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 192	$127	0.5%	19	16.1	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$127	0.8%	20	25.7	0.78×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 122	$121	0.8%	17	25.4	0.67×
★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 28	$114	3.1%	77	109.5	0.70×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 27	$101	2.9%	123	114.8	1.07×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 161	$83.03	0.4%	19	19.2	0.99×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 103	$81.04	0.6%	21	30.0	0.70×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 54	$79.26	1.1%	50	57.2	0.87×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 313	$75.88	0.2%	10	9.9	1.01×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 63	$74.49	0.9%	35	49.5	0.71×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 63	$74.47	0.9%	41	49.5	0.83×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 88	$72.60	0.6%	23	35.3	0.65×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 86	$71.39	0.6%	32	35.9	0.89×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 41	$65.58	1.2%	43	74.9	0.57×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 588	$58.98	0.1%	6	5.3	1.14×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 90	$54.81	0.5%	28	34.3	0.82×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$53.32	0.5%	28	35.6	0.79×
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 43	$50.62	0.9%	47	72.7	0.65×
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 38	$46.86	0.9%	57	81.0	0.70×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 66	$43.82	0.5%	34	46.7	0.73×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 115	$36.62	0.2%	23	26.9	0.85×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 109	$35.74	0.3%	26	28.5	0.91×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 69	$24.06	0.3%	36	44.5	0.81×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 69	$23.87	0.3%	32	44.8	0.71×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$23.44	0.3%	41	51.3	0.80×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 164	$23.33	0.1%	4	18.9	0.21×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 58	$22.91	0.3%	44	52.9	0.83×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 58	$22.71	0.3%	34	53.5	0.64×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$21.41	0.3%	51	56.9	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$19.78	0.3%	58	63.7	0.91×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 48	$19.71	0.3%	58	64.0	0.91×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$19.44	0.3%	49	60.0	0.82×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$17.89	0.3%	54	67.1	0.80×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 56	$10.77	0.1%	61	55.4	1.10×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$6.76	0.2%	90	106.1	0.85×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 24	$5.81	0.2%	112	130.2	0.86×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/anders, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$149$1,3919.34x1d

★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$149$1,3899.32x1d

★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$149$1,3809.26x4h

★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$149$1,3809.26x3h

★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · gold$149$1,0416.98x1d

★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covertlxya$149$9176.15x7d

★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$149$9146.13x7d

★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$149$8976.02x6d

★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$149$8966.01x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertDeath13$149$3362.25x4m

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · goldDeath13$149$1140.77x4m

AWP | Wildfireweapon · redDeath13$149$61.540.41x4m

★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertDeath13$149$3332.24x7m

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$149$1671.12x7m

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$149$1320.88x7m

★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$149$4643.12x7m

AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$149$1501.01x7m

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · goldDeath13$149$1140.77x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$149	87.50%	79
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$149	87.34%	79
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$149	87.40%	79
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$149	87.60%	79
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$149	87.49%	79
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$149	87.59%	79
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$149	87.27%	79
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$149	87.77%	79
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$149	87.63%	79
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$149	87.50%	79
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$149	87.23%	79
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$149	87.57%	79
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$149	87.63%	79
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$149	87.52%	79
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$149	87.33%	79
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$149	87.38%	79
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$149	87.29%	79

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 49.8%gold 7.6%classified 12.4%extraordinary 4.4%red 4.8%epic 0.9%pink 18.0%#d32ee6 1.4%Legendary 0.6%best hit $1,391 (9.34x)