FANG

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$29.21

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $25.56 from 78 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.20%

1,803 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

61.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

98 openings · below min

7 days

83.53%±7.481,585 openings

30 days

85.20%±7.021,803 openings

since tracking started

85.20%±7.021,803 openings

70.0%99.0%128.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	98	98.89%±28.5	—	odds
7d	1,585	83.53%±7.48	−1.0σ	odds
30d	1,803	85.20%±7.02	−0.6σ	odds
All	1,803	85.20%±7.02	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values78 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,803 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$1,417	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 4,348	$806	0.7%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$783	0.7%	1	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 4,167	$748	0.7%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$706	0.7%	0	0.5	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,083	$366	0.7%	2	0.9	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,041	$365	0.7%	1	0.9	—
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$258	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$234	0.2%	1	0.3	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 1,099	$193	0.7%	1	1.6	0.61×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,174	$164	0.3%	1	0.8	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 826	$145	0.7%	7	2.2	3.21×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,174	$144	0.3%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,961	$137	0.3%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,273	$129	0.2%	2	0.8	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,083	$125	0.2%	2	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 694	$122	0.7%	2	2.6	0.77×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$120	0.2%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$119	0.4%	2	1.5	1.31×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 662	$116	0.7%	7	2.7	2.57×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$100	7.7%	17	35.1	0.48×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$100	7.6%	23	35.1	0.66×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$82.85	4.5%	14	25.1	0.56×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 71	$75.12	4.2%	7	25.5	0.27×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 242	$70.60	1.1%	7	7.5	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 259	$66.44	1.0%	2	7.0	0.29×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 204	$64.85	1.2%	6	8.9	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$64.31	1.3%	11	9.0	1.22×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 288	$62.98	0.9%	5	6.3	0.80×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 275	$56.84	0.8%	8	6.6	1.22×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 196	$56.68	1.1%	6	9.2	0.65×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 186	$56.31	1.2%	5	9.7	0.52×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 186	$55.21	1.2%	5	9.7	0.52×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$54.51	1.8%	9	15.0	0.60×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 91	$54.24	2.3%	10	19.8	0.50×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 119	$54.15	1.8%	10	15.2	0.66×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 169	$53.65	1.2%	11	10.7	1.03×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 98	$53.32	2.1%	17	18.4	0.92×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$53.21	2.4%	14	20.6	0.68×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 172	$53.04	1.2%	6	10.5	0.57×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 168	$52.52	1.2%	7	10.7	0.65×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 157	$51.67	1.3%	7	11.5	0.61×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 66	$43.82	2.6%	25	27.2	0.92×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 41	$42.18	4.0%	28	44.0	0.64×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 40	$41.68	4.1%	20	45.1	0.44×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 39	$41.37	4.1%	32	45.8	0.70×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 40	$38.55	3.8%	33	45.1	0.73×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 64	$35.79	2.2%	19	28.2	0.67×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 33	$35.14	4.1%	37	54.3	0.68×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 29	$32.65	4.5%	30	62.9	0.48×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 280	$23.33	0.3%	6	6.4	0.93×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 97	$20.29	0.8%	17	18.7	0.91×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 85	$18.51	0.9%	19	21.2	0.89×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 94	$17.64	0.7%	20	19.2	1.04×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 75	$16.90	0.9%	17	24.1	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 211	$12.71	0.2%	8	8.5	0.94×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 59	$12.66	0.8%	17	30.6	0.56×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 50	$11.17	0.9%	31	36.4	0.85×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 95	$10.77	0.4%	15	18.9	0.79×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 351	$10.34	0.1%	3	5.1	0.58×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 256	$7.91	0.1%	4	7.0	0.57×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$6.76	0.5%	28	36.3	0.77×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 116	$6.20	0.2%	8	15.5	0.51×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$5.81	0.6%	27	44.9	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 54	$4.76	0.3%	14	33.7	0.42×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 99	$3.99	0.2%	8	18.3	0.44×
AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 62	$3.97	0.2%	16	29.0	0.55×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 78	$3.54	0.2%	21	23.0	0.91×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 34	$2.58	0.3%	28	53.0	0.53×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$2.48	0.3%	37	56.0	0.66×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 41	$2.22	0.2%	37	44.2	0.84×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 40	$2.17	0.2%	35	45.6	0.77×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 40	$2.11	0.2%	50	44.6	1.12×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 39	$2.04	0.2%	32	46.8	0.68×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 36	$2.03	0.2%	39	50.1	0.78×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 15	$1.94	0.5%	90	118.2	0.76×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$1.81	0.2%	36	55.3	0.65×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	10.7%	$1.74	0.7%	217	192.6	1.13×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/fang, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$29.21$84728.99x8d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$29.21$79127.07x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Eye of Zapemsweapon · restrictedゼロツー$29.21$2.430.08x2h

AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythicalゼロツー$29.21$3.930.13x2h

AK-47 | Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert$29.21$55.731.91x2h

M4A1-S | Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$29.21$1.890.06x2h

AK-47 | Steel Delta (Well-Worn)weapon · blue$29.21$2.110.07x2h

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$29.21$1.780.06x2h

AK-47 | Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient$29.21$33.811.16x2h

AK-47 | Vulcanweapon · redゼロツー$29.21$1354.63x2h

AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertゼロツー$29.21$1194.06x2h

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$29.21$6.740.23x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$29.21	87.50%	78
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$29.21	87.27%	78
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$29.21	87.60%	78
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$29.21	87.77%	78
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$29.21	87.51%	78
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$29.21	87.41%	78
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$29.21	87.17%	78
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$29.21	87.43%	78
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$29.21	87.26%	78
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$29.21	87.38%	78
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$29.21	87.71%	78
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$29.21	87.75%	78
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$29.21	87.76%	78
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$29.21	87.17%	78
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$29.21	87.37%	78
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$29.21	87.68%	78
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$29.21	87.76%	78
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$29.21	87.43%	78

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 5.1%covert 25.2%gold 0.0%Immortal 0.1%red 6.0%Covert 0.4%Ancient 5.5%Legendary 0.8%rare 1.1%uncommon 4.6%Classified 2.0%pink 14.0%blue 15.9%Mythical 1.9%#8847ff 4.5%Rare 4.1%restricted 3.1%violet 5.7%best hit $847 (28.99x)