MANTIS

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$120.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $105.00 from 75 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.56%

2,517 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.47%±11.96388 openings

7 days

88.61%±5.381,922 openings

30 days

88.56%±4.702,517 openings

since tracking started

88.56%±4.702,517 openings

73.0%85.5%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	388	85.47%±12.0	−0.4σ	odds
7d	1,922	88.61%±5.38	+0.4σ	odds
30d	2,517	88.56%±4.70	+0.5σ	odds
All	2,517	88.56%±4.70	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values75 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,517 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$8,664	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$1,996	1.0%	1	1.3	0.79×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$1,328	0.9%	3	1.8	1.70×
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$1,108	0.9%	2	2.3	0.88×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 909	$855	0.9%	1	2.8	0.36×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 833	$814	0.9%	2	3.0	0.66×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 714	$702	0.9%	2	3.5	0.57×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 323	$396	1.2%	3	7.8	0.38×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 909	$393	0.4%	2	2.8	0.72×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 60	$392	6.3%	51	42.3	1.21×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 217	$370	1.6%	6	11.6	0.52×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 46	$300	6.3%	46	55.1	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$278	0.8%	7	8.1	0.87×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 179	$277	1.5%	10	14.1	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 141	$273	1.8%	13	17.9	0.73×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 58	$258	4.2%	37	43.5	0.85×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 385	$253	0.6%	4	6.5	0.61×
★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 227	$252	1.1%	5	11.1	0.45×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$239	1.7%	10	18.9	0.53×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 769	$219	0.3%	2	3.3	0.61×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$209	2.4%	29	30.5	0.95×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 118	$197	1.6%	11	21.4	0.51×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 92	$193	2.0%	16	27.4	0.58×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 43	$193	4.3%	69	58.4	1.18×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 75	$172	2.2%	25	33.5	0.75×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 90	$170	1.8%	28	27.9	1.00×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 417	$167	0.4%	6	6.0	0.99×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 227	$160	0.7%	9	11.1	0.81×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 36	$157	4.1%	50	69.0	0.72×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 435	$156	0.3%	10	5.8	1.73×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,111	$156	0.1%	5	2.3	2.21×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 99	$154	1.5%	20	25.4	0.79×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 34	$145	4.1%	99	74.8	1.32×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$135	1.1%	18	21.6	0.83×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 106	$129	1.2%	21	23.7	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$127	1.8%	28	37.8	0.74×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 122	$121	0.9%	22	20.6	1.07×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 92	$120	1.3%	31	27.4	1.13×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 35	$110	3.0%	36	72.0	0.50×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	11.1%	$107	11.4%	286	279.4	1.02×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 34	$106	3.0%	60	73.5	0.82×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 34	$106	3.0%	46	74.3	0.62×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 143	$92.38	0.6%	17	17.6	0.96×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 244	$83.03	0.3%	9	10.3	0.87×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 217	$82.85	0.4%	5	11.6	0.43×
★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 50	$82.78	1.6%	43	50.6	0.85×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$58.32	0.4%	26	20.1	1.29×
★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 93	$55.46	0.6%	17	26.9	0.63×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$54.81	0.4%	17	20.1	0.84×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$54.51	0.5%	15	22.4	0.67×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$54.15	0.5%	6	22.7	0.26×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$53.32	0.4%	10	20.9	0.48×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 58	$53.02	0.9%	32	43.0	0.74×
★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 83	$51.39	0.6%	15	30.5	0.49×
★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 81	$50.81	0.6%	27	31.0	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 323	$45.00	0.1%	5	7.8	0.64×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 88	$43.82	0.5%	23	28.7	0.80×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 159	$35.79	0.2%	10	15.9	0.63×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$34.71	0.7%	37	51.1	0.72×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$34.29	0.7%	29	52.1	0.56×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$26.29	0.2%	20	23.4	0.85×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 185	$23.33	0.1%	7	13.6	0.52×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 102	$22.15	0.2%	16	24.7	0.65×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$20.29	0.3%	31	39.0	0.79×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$18.51	0.3%	34	45.3	0.75×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 61	$18.34	0.3%	20	41.5	0.48×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$16.90	0.3%	37	52.4	0.71×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$16.58	0.3%	41	48.8	0.84×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$15.30	0.3%	35	55.4	0.63×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$14.98	0.3%	35	46.1	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$14.63	0.3%	30	47.8	0.63×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 52	$14.48	0.3%	39	48.6	0.80×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 54	$10.77	0.2%	42	46.6	0.90×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 26	$6.76	0.3%	61	97.9	0.62×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 21	$5.81	0.3%	99	121.3	0.82×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/mantis, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$120$2,03516.96x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$120$1,39811.65x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertApxcalypse.$120$1,34711.22x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertApxcalypse.$120$1,33211.10x1d

★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert$120$1,1089.23x15h

★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert$120$1,1059.21x3h

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covertDaemonCS_YT$120$9087.56x16h

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$120$8907.42x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covertSULTANU NR1$120$8757.29x3d

★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert$120$7035.86x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Fadeweapon · redPolesz$120$1080.90x21m

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertPolesz$120$1180.98x21m

★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$120$3903.25x21m

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fireweapon · redAM.$120$1541.28x1h

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$120$5.770.05x1h

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$120$17.410.15x1h

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$120$19.050.16x1h

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covertAM.$120$1521.27x1h

M4A1-S | Decimatorweapon · pinkAvoCado$120$17.100.14x2h

★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$120$1070.89x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$120	87.50%	75
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$120	87.88%	75
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$120	87.38%	75
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$120	87.52%	75
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$120	87.29%	75
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$120	87.53%	75
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$120	87.46%	75
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$120	87.59%	75
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$120	87.32%	75
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$120	87.63%	75
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$120	87.56%	75
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$120	87.64%	75
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$120	87.46%	75
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$120	87.66%	75
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$120	87.13%	75
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$120	87.26%	75
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$120	87.87%	75

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 47.9%extraordinary 2.5%legendary 0.1%gold 5.7%restricted 4.3%Ancient 0.4%epic 2.7%classified 17.9%red 2.9%rare 2.4%Legendary 0.5%pink 12.5%best hit $2,035 (16.96x)