VICE

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$236.57

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $206.99 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.00%

1,532 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.56%±13.06230 openings

7 days

94.68%±5.821,218 openings

30 days

92.00%±5.151,532 openings

since tracking started

92.00%±5.151,532 openings

78.0%91.8%105.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	230	91.56%±13.1	+0.6σ	odds
7d	1,218	94.68%±5.82	+2.4σ	odds
30d	1,532	92.00%±5.15	+1.7σ	odds
All	1,532	92.00%±5.15	+1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,532 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$10.2K	1.0%	2	0.3	—
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$3,236	0.8%	2	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$1,685	0.8%	2	1.5	1.31×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,478	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 833	$1,448	0.8%	2	1.8	1.09×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 667	$1,169	0.8%	1	2.3	0.44×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 667	$1,143	0.8%	3	2.3	1.31×
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 667	$1,109	0.8%	1	2.3	0.44×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 19	$609	15.8%	78	82.1	0.95×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 44	$441	4.9%	37	35.1	1.05×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 164	$440	1.3%	6	9.3	0.64×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 87	$439	2.4%	14	17.6	0.79×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 86	$437	2.4%	13	17.8	0.73×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 41	$418	4.9%	33	36.9	0.89×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 455	$393	0.4%	2	3.4	0.59×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 39	$392	4.9%	50	39.4	1.27×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 110	$360	1.6%	8	13.9	0.57×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	14.0%	$287	19.3%	104	213.9	0.49×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 42	$266	3.0%	16	36.2	0.44×
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 26	$229	4.3%	96	59.6	1.61×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 25	$222	4.3%	55	60.8	0.90×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 54	$214	1.9%	17	28.2	0.60×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 43	$180	2.0%	27	35.8	0.75×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 108	$160	0.7%	10	14.2	0.70×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 22	$157	3.5%	75	69.7	1.08×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 147	$147	0.5%	8	10.4	0.77×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 122	$143	0.6%	12	12.6	0.96×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 149	$126	0.4%	14	10.3	1.36×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$108	0.4%	10	12.7	0.79×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 68	$94.24	0.7%	14	22.4	0.63×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$92.75	0.9%	19	30.5	0.62×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 50	$92.38	0.9%	27	30.8	0.88×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 62	$87.93	0.7%	13	24.7	0.53×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold	1 in 60	$85.84	0.7%	15	25.4	0.59×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 49	$82.88	0.8%	23	31.6	0.73×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 33	$74.49	1.1%	33	47.0	0.70×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 33	$74.47	1.1%	26	47.0	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 70	$73.72	0.5%	16	21.8	0.74×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$70.80	0.5%	17	22.8	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$64.31	0.5%	20	26.4	0.76×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 45	$62.98	0.7%	25	34.0	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$59.97	0.6%	21	29.1	0.72×
USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$58.95	1.9%	111	103.3	1.07×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 46	$54.24	0.6%	24	33.2	0.72×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 45	$53.21	0.6%	26	34.2	0.76×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 20	$44.80	1.1%	50	74.8	0.67×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$41.37	0.8%	37	61.7	0.60×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/vice, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covertHEADSHOT V NOGU$237$10.2K43.08x5d

AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$237$10.2K43.08x5d

AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covertHEADSHOT V NOGU$237$3,35414.18x3d

AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert$237$3,27413.84x5d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$237$1,6887.14x1d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$237$1,6857.12x11h

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3HEADSHOT V NOGU$237$1,4706.21x2d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$237$1,4706.21x2d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Mopo$237$1,1694.94x16h

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$237$1,1674.93x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicDeath13$237$1570.66x3m

★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covertDeath13$237$3921.66x3m

★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicDeath13$237$1680.71x7m

★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$237$4341.84x7m

AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$237$49.300.21x7m

★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold$237$1850.78x7m

M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic$237$2190.93x7m

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert$237$2691.14x7m

★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicDeath13$237$1680.71x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$237	87.50%	47
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$237	87.86%	47
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$237	87.32%	47
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$237	87.52%	47
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$237	87.56%	47
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$237	87.64%	47
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$237	87.55%	47
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$237	87.51%	47
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$237	87.71%	47
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$237	87.53%	47
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$237	87.42%	47
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$237	87.45%	47
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$237	87.63%	47
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$237	87.45%	47
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$237	87.52%	47
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$237	87.64%	47
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$237	87.60%	47

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 45.0%restricted 0.1%extraordinary 19.4%legendary 0.2%epic 8.5%gold 4.0%Ancient 5.8%rare 2.0%red 8.2%classified 6.7%best hit $10.2K (43.08x)