Covert

A case on Skin.club (By quality), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$6.22

Advertised RTP

92.55%

EV $5.76 from 83 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.42%

179K openings, odds method

Variance

6.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.74%±3.7119.2K openings

7 days

92.71%±1.34146K openings

30 days

93.42%±1.21179K openings

since tracking started

93.42%±1.21179K openings

88.5%92.8%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	19.2K	92.74%±3.71	+0.1σ	odds
7d	146K	92.71%±1.34	+0.3σ	odds
30d	179K	93.42%±1.21	+1.5σ	odds
All	179K	93.42%±1.21	+1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values83 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 179K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$466	0.4%	7	8.9	0.78×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$367	0.3%	10	8.9	1.12×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$313	0.3%	12	8.9	1.34×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$303	0.3%	4	8.9	0.45×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$260	0.2%	6	8.9	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$232	0.2%	10	8.9	1.12×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$207	0.2%	14	8.9	1.56×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$207	0.2%	8	8.9	0.89×
AWP \| CMYK (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$200	0.2%	6	8.9	0.67×
P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$182	0.2%	13	8.9	1.45×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$180	0.2%	7	8.9	0.78×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$174	0.2%	11	8.9	1.23×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$173	0.3%	12	17.9	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 10,000	$172	0.3%	19	17.9	1.06×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$168	0.3%	26	17.9	1.45×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$157	0.3%	10	17.9	0.56×
AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$124	0.2%	27	17.9	1.51×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$123	0.4%	26	35.8	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$122	0.4%	19	35.8	0.53×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$121	0.4%	54	35.8	1.51×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$119	0.4%	35	35.8	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$117	0.4%	37	35.8	1.03×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$116	0.4%	26	35.8	0.73×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$113	0.4%	42	35.8	1.17×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,000	$113	0.4%	50	35.8	1.40×
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$113	0.4%	38	35.8	1.06×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$111	0.4%	41	35.8	1.15×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$111	0.4%	33	35.8	0.92×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$110	0.4%	41	35.8	1.15×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$106	0.4%	36	35.8	1.01×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$106	0.4%	38	35.8	1.06×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$99.64	0.3%	46	35.8	1.29×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,000	$94.12	0.3%	35	35.8	0.98×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$93.66	0.3%	24	35.8	0.67×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$93.47	0.3%	46	35.8	1.29×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$88.60	0.3%	36	35.8	1.01×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$86.79	0.3%	42	35.8	1.17×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$86.57	0.3%	40	35.8	1.12×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$86.13	0.3%	35	35.8	0.98×
CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$85.52	0.3%	32	35.8	0.89×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$83.35	0.3%	53	35.8	1.48×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$83.00	0.3%	35	35.8	0.98×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$82.47	0.3%	45	35.8	1.26×
AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$81.10	0.3%	44	35.8	1.23×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 5,000	$73.14	0.3%	23	35.8	0.64×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 5,000	$71.75	0.2%	38	35.8	1.06×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$71.31	0.2%	53	35.8	1.48×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$68.78	0.2%	57	35.8	1.59×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$65.77	0.3%	54	53.7	1.01×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$64.28	0.3%	44	53.7	0.82×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$63.32	0.3%	40	53.7	0.74×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$63.00	0.3%	38	53.7	0.71×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,333	$62.10	0.3%	51	53.7	0.95×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,000	$59.59	0.5%	140	89.5	1.56×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$59.23	0.5%	104	89.5	1.16×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$56.10	0.5%	103	89.5	1.15×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$55.97	0.5%	101	89.5	1.13×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$55.95	0.5%	529	89.5	5.91×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,429	$54.18	0.7%	108	125.3	0.86×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$53.60	0.9%	449	179.0	2.51×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$52.56	0.9%	282	179.0	1.58×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,000	$51.40	0.9%	560	179.0	3.13×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$50.21	0.9%	594	179.0	3.32×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$49.49	3.4%	127	715.9	0.18×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$48.99	3.4%	433	715.9	0.60×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 250	$46.80	3.3%	375	715.9	0.52×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$45.40	3.2%	772	715.9	1.08×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 250	$44.59	3.1%	815	715.9	1.14×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$43.67	3.0%	832	715.9	1.16×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 200	$38.41	3.3%	918	894.9	1.03×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$37.06	3.2%	373	894.9	0.42×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$36.59	3.2%	1,603	894.9	1.79×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 200	$35.69	3.1%	1,614	894.9	1.80×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 200	$34.36	3.0%	1,528	894.9	1.71×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$34.22	5.9%	1,368	1789.8	0.76×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$34.09	5.9%	1,795	1789.8	1.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$33.36	5.8%	1,573	1789.8	0.88×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$31.85	5.5%	1,804	1789.8	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$31.29	5.4%	1,801	1789.8	1.01×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$29.62	5.1%	989	1789.8	0.55×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$24.11	4.2%	1,159	1789.8	0.65×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$12.93	3.4%	2,637	2684.8	0.98×
Sealed Graffiti \| Keep the Change (Battle Green)graffiti · Common	85.0%	$0.03	0.4%	151,869	152136.4	1.00×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/covert, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertlob$6.62$47671.96x7d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$6.63$47671.85x7d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertKaKaS$6.60$47672.17x6d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$6.57$47572.34x4d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$6.61$47471.67x3d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertSUPERMAN$6.57$47071.56x4d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertRoWie$6.63$47070.90x3d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$6.27$47074.92x22h

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$6.54$46971.66x4d

AK-47 | X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertBaiPotruk69$6.64$39859.98x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMelodien$6.22$49.467.95x38s

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientMelodien$6.22$33.825.44x53s

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · AncientMelodien$6.22$29.524.75x53s

FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMelodien$6.22$33.385.37x2m

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covertMelodien$6.22$43.697.02x2m

AK-47 | Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · CovertShystriy01$6.22$46.817.53x2m

Sealed Graffiti | Keep the Change (Battle Green)graffiti · Common$6.21$0.030.00x3m

Sealed Graffiti | Keep the Change (Battle Green)graffiti · CommonShystriy01$6.21$0.030.00x3m

Sealed Graffiti | Keep the Change (Battle Green)graffiti · Common$6.21$0.030.00x3m

M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$6.21$48.917.88x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.55%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$6.22	92.55%	83
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$6.28	92.45%	83
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$6.26	92.47%	83
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$6.27	92.43%	83
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$6.29	92.53%	83
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$6.31	92.50%	83
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$6.27	92.52%	83
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$6.28	92.46%	83
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$6.57	92.45%	83
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$6.60	92.44%	83
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$6.60	92.44%	83
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$6.60	92.43%	83
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$6.59	92.54%	83
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$6.61	92.45%	83
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$6.61	92.46%	83
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$6.64	92.45%	83
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$6.61	92.43%	83
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$6.60	92.52%	83
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$6.57	92.46%	83
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$6.58	92.49%	83
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$6.54	92.50%	83
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$6.58	92.56%	83
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$6.61	92.53%	83
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$6.60	92.55%	83
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$6.59	92.53%	83
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$6.60	92.46%	83
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$6.61	92.54%	83
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$6.61	92.46%	83
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$6.60	92.50%	83
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$6.59	92.47%	83

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.7%epic 0.0%Ancient 7.7%rare 0.1%red 0.3%Covert 0.4%uncommon 0.4%classified 1.5%Common 85.0%best hit $476 (71.96x)