HLTV V2

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$18.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $15.75 from 83 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.58%

4,807 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.38%±7.101,092 openings

7 days

89.78%±3.714,222 openings

30 days

88.58%±3.484,807 openings

since tracking started

88.58%±3.484,807 openings

79.5%87.3%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,092	87.38%±7.10	−0.1σ	odds
7d	4,222	89.78%±3.71	+1.1σ	odds
30d	4,807	88.58%±3.48	+0.5σ	odds
All	4,807	88.58%±3.48	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values83 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,815 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 5,000	$546	0.7%	1	1.0	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$307	0.8%	6	1.9	3.12×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$253	0.2%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,000	$196	0.2%	0	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$152	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$148	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$147	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$146	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$139	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$137	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$137	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$136	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$125	0.7%	5	4.3	1.15×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$112	0.4%	0	2.4	0.00×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$97.75	0.4%	0	2.9	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$83.95	0.1%	0	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$82.38	0.4%	0	3.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$74.67	0.2%	0	2.4	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$71.74	0.2%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 435	$66.23	1.0%	0	11.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 263	$65.16	1.6%	0	18.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 526	$64.37	0.8%	0	9.1	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 476	$61.72	0.8%	0	10.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 227	$60.74	1.7%	0	21.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 435	$56.82	0.8%	0	11.1	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 303	$55.72	1.2%	0	15.9	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 208	$54.96	1.7%	0	23.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 303	$54.68	1.1%	0	15.9	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 286	$54.01	1.2%	0	16.9	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$53.92	1.7%	0	24.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 270	$51.70	1.2%	0	17.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 238	$48.87	1.3%	0	20.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 208	$46.69	1.4%	0	23.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 278	$45.56	1.0%	0	17.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 263	$44.56	1.1%	0	18.3	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 204	$44.40	1.4%	0	23.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 189	$43.39	1.5%	0	25.5	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 189	$42.72	1.4%	0	25.5	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 182	$42.22	1.5%	0	26.5	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 179	$41.83	1.5%	0	27.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$41.71	1.1%	0	20.7	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 227	$41.50	1.2%	0	21.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 238	$40.36	1.1%	0	20.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 164	$40.36	1.6%	0	29.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$40.12	1.1%	0	20.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 217	$39.11	1.1%	0	22.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 208	$38.08	1.2%	0	23.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 208	$37.90	1.2%	0	23.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 189	$37.79	1.3%	0	25.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 185	$37.41	1.3%	0	26.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$37.09	1.3%	0	26.5	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 175	$35.86	1.3%	0	27.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 145	$31.55	1.4%	0	33.2	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 135	$31.49	1.5%	0	35.6	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 119	$29.59	1.6%	0	40.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	13.8%	$23.98	21.0%	0	663.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 42	$18.64	2.8%	0	115.1	0.00×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$17.56	3.9%	0	170.5	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 123	$11.02	0.6%	0	39.0	0.00×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$8.80	1.1%	0	93.4	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 118	$8.69	0.5%	0	40.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 68	$7.97	0.7%	0	71.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$6.78	0.6%	0	69.8	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 56	$6.22	0.7%	0	86.7	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 62	$6.07	0.6%	0	78.0	0.00×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$5.65	1.3%	0	173.8	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$5.40	0.8%	0	105.4	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 57	$5.17	0.6%	0	84.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$5.12	0.9%	0	132.4	0.00×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$5.10	1.4%	0	200.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 36	$5.10	0.9%	0	132.9	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$4.94	0.8%	0	119.4	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$4.66	0.8%	0	129.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 31	$4.61	0.9%	0	153.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$4.21	0.8%	0	135.8	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$4.21	0.7%	0	130.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$4.02	0.8%	0	144.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$3.96	0.8%	0	147.8	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$3.73	0.7%	0	132.9	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$3.58	0.7%	0	140.6	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$3.53	0.7%	0	143.5	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 28	$3.49	0.8%	0	169.5	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$3.44	0.8%	0	177.7	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/hltv-v2, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$18.00$62334.63x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Death by Puppyweapon · classified$18.00$6.040.34x23s

Galil AR | Orange DDPATweapon · violet$18.00$22.671.26x23s

AWP | Wildfireweapon · red$18.00$51.032.84x23s

P90 | Nostalgiaweapon · pinkSoBoL BuK$18.00$5.690.32x23s

Desert Eagle | Printstreamweapon · red$18.00$43.232.40x5m

Zeus x27 | Olympusweapon · pink$18.00$4.240.24x5m

Zeus x27 | Olympusweapon · pinkosiemano$18.00$4.240.24x5m

Zeus x27 | Olympusweapon · pinkMcLovin1889$18.00$4.240.24x6m

USP-S | Jawbreakerweapon · pinkNikoš$18.00$7.100.39x6m

USP-S | Jawbreakerweapon · pink$18.00$7.100.39x24m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$18.00	87.50%	83
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$18.00	87.70%	83
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$18.00	87.77%	83
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$18.00	87.74%	83
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$18.00	87.71%	83
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$18.00	87.74%	83
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$18.00	87.71%	83
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$18.00	87.69%	83
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$18.00	87.67%	83
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$18.00	87.69%	83
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$18.00	87.83%	83
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$18.00	87.67%	83
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$18.00	87.61%	83
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$18.00	87.14%	83
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$18.00	87.51%	83
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$18.00	87.14%	83
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$18.00	87.51%	83
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$18.00	87.95%	83
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$18.00	87.61%	83
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$18.00	87.20%	83
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$18.00	87.61%	83
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$18.00	87.50%	83
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$18.00	87.66%	83

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.0%covert 10.6%red 3.8%Ancient 2.4%Covert 0.5%violet 13.8%pink 30.1%restricted 3.5%classified 23.5%Classified 5.1%Legendary 6.7%best hit $623 (34.63x)