HLTV V2 JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$103.56

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $90.61 from 83 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.29%

567 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83 openings · below min

7 days

94.97%±11.69410 openings

30 days

94.29%±9.94567 openings

since tracking started

94.29%±9.94567 openings

76.5%102.0%127.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	83	101.96%±24.8	—	odds
7d	410	94.97%±11.7	+1.2σ	odds
30d	567	94.29%±9.94	+1.4σ	odds
All	567	94.29%±9.94	+1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values83 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 572 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 26	$618	26.2%	25	22.0	1.14×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 26	$310	13.2%	31	22.0	1.41×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 78	$262	3.7%	0	7.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 78	$192	2.7%	0	7.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 52	$152	3.2%	0	11.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$147	2.1%	0	7.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$147	2.1%	0	7.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 52	$138	2.9%	0	11.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$138	1.9%	0	7.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$135	1.9%	0	7.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$135	1.9%	0	7.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$133	1.9%	0	7.3	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 26	$125	5.3%	19	22.0	0.86×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 52	$112	2.4%	0	11.0	0.00×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 52	$97.75	2.1%	0	11.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$88.86	1.3%	0	7.3	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$77.59	0.8%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$77.59	1.1%	0	7.3	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$71.10	1.0%	0	7.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 104	$65.55	0.7%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$65.16	0.9%	0	7.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$65.01	0.7%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$63.62	0.9%	0	7.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$61.64	0.7%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$59.33	0.6%	0	5.5	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$56.83	0.6%	0	5.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$55.91	0.6%	0	5.5	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$54.76	0.6%	0	5.5	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$54.22	0.8%	0	7.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$53.66	0.6%	0	5.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$53.47	0.6%	0	5.5	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$49.95	0.7%	0	7.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 78	$48.42	0.7%	0	7.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 104	$46.28	0.5%	0	5.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 104	$44.98	0.5%	0	5.5	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$44.72	0.5%	0	5.5	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 78	$44.56	0.6%	0	7.3	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$44.12	0.6%	0	7.3	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$42.49	0.6%	0	7.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 78	$42.06	0.6%	0	7.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 78	$41.25	0.6%	0	7.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$41.23	0.4%	0	5.5	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$41.03	0.4%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$40.12	0.4%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 104	$40.00	0.4%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 104	$38.86	0.4%	0	5.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$37.90	0.4%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$36.92	0.4%	0	5.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$36.20	0.4%	0	5.5	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$35.53	0.4%	0	5.5	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 78	$35.52	0.5%	0	7.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 104	$34.02	0.4%	0	5.5	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 78	$33.48	0.5%	0	7.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$33.06	0.4%	0	5.5	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 78	$31.56	0.4%	0	7.3	0.00×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 52	$23.94	0.5%	0	11.0	0.00×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$19.31	0.4%	0	11.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 130	$18.53	0.2%	0	4.4	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 130	$11.05	0.1%	0	4.4	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 130	$8.80	0.1%	0	4.4	0.00×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$8.78	0.1%	0	7.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 104	$7.60	0.1%	0	5.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 130	$6.91	0.1%	0	4.4	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 130	$6.22	0.1%	0	4.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$6.07	0.1%	0	5.5	0.00×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$5.75	0.1%	0	7.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$5.37	0.1%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 104	$5.09	0.1%	0	5.5	0.00×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$5.07	0.1%	0	7.3	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 130	$5.06	0.0%	0	4.4	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 130	$4.94	0.0%	0	4.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 104	$4.88	0.1%	0	5.5	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 130	$4.74	0.0%	0	4.4	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 130	$4.70	0.0%	0	4.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 130	$4.24	0.0%	0	4.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 130	$4.06	0.0%	0	4.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 130	$4.01	0.0%	0	4.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$3.99	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 130	$3.87	0.0%	0	4.4	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 130	$3.71	0.0%	0	4.4	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 130	$3.60	0.0%	0	4.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$3.49	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$3.38	0.0%	0	5.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/hltv-v2-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldrzurek$106$6275.92x5d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$106$6275.92x6d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$106$6275.92x7d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldCHOUCHA$106$6275.92x7d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldleosia_krolowa$106$6235.90x7d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$106$6235.90x7d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldM9/BF GW Code : zurys$106$6235.90x8d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$106$6235.90x8d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$104$6225.99x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Zeus x27 | Olympusweapon · pink????Tysiak™$104$5.010.05x2h

Glock-18 | Neo-Noirweapon · redZakoleon$104$46.020.44x2h

Zeus x27 | Olympusweapon · pink$100$4.940.05x4h

USP-S | Neo-Noirweapon · red$100$1371.36x4h

AK-47 | Bloodsportweapon · red$100$1491.49x4h

AUG | Death by Puppyweapon · classifiedMar_Bat123 OsloRP$100$6.520.07x4h

AK-47 | Leet Museoweapon · covertÖrdög$100$1771.77x4h

Zeus x27 | Olympusweapon · pink$100$4.940.05x5h

AK-47 | Leet Museoweapon · covert$100$1771.77x5h

M4A4 | In Living Colorweapon · redEugeniusz Krab$100$40.720.41x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:45 UTC	$104	87.50%	83
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$100	87.50%	83
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$100	87.50%	83
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$101	87.50%	83
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$103	87.50%	83
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$105	87.50%	83
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$104	87.50%	83
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$104	87.50%	83
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$105	87.50%	83
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$106	87.50%	83
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$106	87.50%	83
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$106	87.50%	83
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$106	87.50%	83
3 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$105	87.50%	83

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 3.8%covert 51.9%red 8.7%Ancient 7.4%Covert 1.3%violet 1.9%restricted 1.9%pink 9.4%classified 8.5%Classified 2.7%Legendary 2.5%best hit $627 (5.92x)