Venom Strike

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$50.00

Advertised RTP

83.28%

EV $41.64 from 100 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.06%

619 openings, odds method

Variance

4.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

35 openings · below min

7 days

75.92%±20.10417 openings

30 days

79.06%±16.50619 openings

since tracking started

79.06%±16.50619 openings

8.0%78.0%148.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	35	78.04%±69.4	—	odds
7d	417	75.92%±20.1	−0.7σ	odds
30d	619	79.06%±16.5	−0.5σ	odds
All	619	79.06%±16.5	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values100 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 619 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20,000	$5,403	0.6%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$4,690	0.6%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$4,591	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20,000	$4,084	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 20,000	$3,715	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$3,475	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 20,000	$3,361	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 20,000	$2,388	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$2,202	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,795	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,688	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,682	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,308	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 10,000	$1,159	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,031	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$1,000	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$994	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$857	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$740	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$739	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 10,000	$615	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$574	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 10,000	$548	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$538	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$517	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$508	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$504	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny	1 in 5,000	$494	0.2%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$481	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 4,000	$462	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$441	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 3,333	$425	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$422	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$412	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$407	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$372	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$370	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 2,500	$360	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 2,500	$360	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 2,222	$342	0.4%	0	0.3	—
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$323	0.4%	1	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$304	0.4%	2	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$299	0.4%	0	0.3	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 1,818	$287	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,667	$260	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$253	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$250	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$250	0.4%	1	0.4	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,429	$244	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Classic Knifeknife · covert	1 in 1,250	$225	0.4%	1	0.5	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$209	0.5%	0	0.6	—
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,111	$206	0.4%	1	0.6	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$185	0.4%	1	0.6	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$167	0.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$166	0.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$164	0.4%	1	0.6	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 667	$158	0.6%	2	0.9	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 500	$151	0.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$150	0.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$148	0.7%	2	1.2	1.62×
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$147	0.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 500	$146	0.7%	1	1.2	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$143	1.0%	1	1.9	0.54×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 333	$139	1.0%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 250	$131	1.3%	1	2.5	0.40×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$126	1.5%	1	3.1	0.32×
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$115	1.4%	4	3.1	1.29×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 200	$115	1.4%	3	3.1	0.97×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$114	1.4%	6	3.1	1.94×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$112	2.7%	5	6.2	0.81×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 100	$108	2.6%	5	6.2	0.81×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 67	$106	3.8%	8	9.3	0.86×
★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 67	$100	3.6%	12	9.3	1.29×
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$85.53	4.1%	13	12.4	1.05×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$70.61	3.4%	11	12.4	0.89×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$70.45	3.4%	12	12.4	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$70.28	3.4%	16	12.4	1.29×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$68.27	3.3%	20	12.4	1.62×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 50	$56.50	2.7%	13	12.4	1.05×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$55.99	2.7%	7	12.4	0.57×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$52.52	2.5%	20	12.4	1.62×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$43.20	3.1%	13	18.6	0.70×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$40.64	2.9%	18	18.6	0.97×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$39.18	2.8%	8	18.6	0.43×
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$37.46	2.7%	18	18.6	0.97×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$26.01	1.9%	22	18.6	1.18×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$23.09	1.7%	20	18.6	1.08×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$20.85	1.5%	14	18.6	0.75×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$20.16	1.5%	20	18.6	1.08×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$17.03	1.6%	19	24.8	0.77×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$13.97	1.3%	25	24.8	1.01×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$13.28	1.3%	33	24.8	1.33×
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$13.11	1.3%	32	24.8	1.29×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$12.29	1.2%	28	24.8	1.13×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$12.15	1.2%	25	24.8	1.01×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$11.81	1.1%	16	24.8	0.65×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$10.66	1.0%	28	24.8	1.13×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$5.44	0.7%	27	30.9	0.87×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$4.84	0.6%	32	30.9	1.03×
R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$0.65	0.1%	45	43.1	1.04×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: venom-strike), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert[BOT] Darth Vader$50.00$73914.77x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified642438$50.00$13.110.26x4h

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified642438$50.00$23.090.46x4h

P2000 | Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink642438$50.00$4.840.10x5h

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryJellysquash$50.00$85.531.71x5h

★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert柠檬女孩$50.00$4128.25x5h

P250 | Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkFinding Match$50.00$39.180.78x5h

P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified[HDM]TDN$50.00$13.110.26x5h

AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covertJellysquash$50.00$52.521.05x5h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified柠檬女孩$50.00$40.640.81x5h

P2000 | Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkFinding Match$50.00$4.840.10x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.28%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$50.00	83.28%	100

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 2.6%covert 15.3%classified 30.1%epic 0.0%sunny 0.1%covert knife 0.0%gold 1.1%rare 0.1%#ffd700 0.0%mil spec 0.1%red 0.2%blue 0.5%pink 29.0%#eb4b4b 2.0%#8847ff 2.0%restricted 17.0%best hit $739 (14.77x)