AWP

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$7.21
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $6.63 from 145 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.55%
2,193 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
74.15%±23.73211 openings
7 days
95.90%±7.591,970 openings
30 days
97.55%±7.172,193 openings
since tracking started
97.55%±7.172,193 openings
50.0%77.8%105.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h21174.15%±23.7−1.5σodds
7d1,97095.90%±7.59+1.0σodds
30d2,19397.55%±7.17+1.5σodds
All2,19397.55%±7.17+1.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values145 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,193 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$5151.4%00.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 6,250$2170.5%10.4—
AWP | Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 5,263$2030.6%10.4—
AWP | Silk Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 7,143$2020.4%00.3—
AWP | Silk Tiger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 5,556$1830.5%00.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,143$1780.4%10.3—
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,000$1740.5%10.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1490.4%00.4—
AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1440.4%00.4—
AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1420.3%00.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,143$1390.3%00.3—
AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1300.3%00.4—
AWP | CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 5,263$1290.4%10.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1250.3%00.4—
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 9,091$1200.2%20.2—
AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1160.2%00.2—
AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 7,143$1080.2%00.3—
AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 5,263$98.540.3%00.4—
AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$96.430.3%10.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$94.940.3%00.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$94.130.2%00.3—
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,000$92.910.3%10.4—
AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$89.160.2%00.4—
AWP | CMYK (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 10,000$85.120.1%00.2—
StatTrak™ AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,263$81.560.2%10.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,000$78.560.2%00.4—
AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 10,000$72.910.1%00.2—
StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$71.920.1%00.3—
AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 9,091$71.130.1%00.2—
StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$67.560.2%20.4—
AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$67.520.2%20.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$64.600.2%00.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$63.440.2%00.4—
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$62.780.1%00.2—
AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,263$61.190.2%00.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 4,762$60.930.2%00.5—
StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$58.250.2%00.4—
AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,778$56.920.3%20.8—
AWP | Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · Legendary1 in 5,882$56.380.1%00.4—
AWP | Electric Hive (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified1 in 8,333$55.660.1%10.3—
StatTrak™ AWP | Electric Hive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,852$54.560.4%11.20.84×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$54.510.1%00.3—
AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,041$49.180.4%01.10.00×
AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 9,091$49.060.1%00.2—
AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 3,125$48.970.2%10.7—
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,143$46.700.1%00.3—
AWP | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$46.540.1%20.3—
AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$45.800.1%10.4—
AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$45.510.1%00.3—
StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 2,222$41.840.3%01.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,136$41.690.6%31.91.55×
AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$41.650.1%20.4—
AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$39.690.1%00.3—
AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 649$39.630.9%13.40.30×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,174$39.410.3%21.01.98×
StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 3,333$37.650.2%20.7—
AWP | Exoskeleton (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,500$37.180.2%40.9—
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 578$34.270.9%23.80.53×
AWP | Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$32.790.1%50.4—
AWP | Electric Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 403$29.721.1%55.40.92×
AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 372$29.271.2%55.90.85×
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 6,250$27.640.1%20.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 562$26.960.7%33.90.77×
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 415$26.100.9%55.30.95×
AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 380$25.961.0%65.81.04×
AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 704$25.280.5%23.10.64×
AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 368$22.410.9%86.01.34×
AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 546$22.050.6%114.02.74×
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 290$21.901.1%57.60.66×
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 353$21.270.9%76.21.13×
AWP | Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce61 in 719$21.090.4%63.01.97×
AWP | Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 400$20.080.8%45.50.73×
AWP | Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 500$19.720.6%44.40.91×
AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 935$19.630.3%52.32.13×
AWP | Sun in Leo (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 284$19.441.0%77.70.91×
StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 314$19.330.9%97.01.29×
AWP | Sun in Leo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 704$18.980.4%43.11.28×
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 239$18.851.2%119.21.20×
AWP | Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon1 in 202$18.791.4%1410.91.29×
StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 162$16.331.5%1213.60.89×
AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 138$14.611.6%1815.91.13×
StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 106$14.152.0%2320.71.11×
AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 83$14.132.6%2326.40.87×
AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 127$14.021.7%2017.21.16×
AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 184$13.911.1%1311.91.09×
AWP | Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 201$13.331.0%2510.92.29×
StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 133$11.901.3%916.40.55×
AWP | Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 96$11.271.8%2722.91.18×
StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 75$10.282.1%2429.20.82×
StatTrak™ AWP | Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 77$9.831.9%1828.40.63×
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 88$9.571.6%2125.00.84×
StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 90$9.181.5%2224.50.90×
StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 110$9.041.2%3019.91.51×
StatTrak™ AWP | Worm God (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 110$9.031.2%3420.01.70×
AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 124$8.541.0%2317.71.30×
AWP | Acheron (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 162$8.490.8%1713.61.25×
AWP | Capillary (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 138$8.400.9%2015.91.26×
AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 131$8.351.0%1916.81.13×
StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 155$8.140.8%2014.21.41×
StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 155$7.970.8%2014.21.41×
StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 160$7.760.7%1613.71.17×
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 103$7.671.1%2721.31.27×
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 114$7.661.0%1519.20.78×
StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 107$7.541.1%1220.50.58×
StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 117$7.531.0%2118.81.12×
AWP | Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 96$6.691.0%4122.81.80×
StatTrak™ AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 62$6.201.5%2735.50.76×
StatTrak™ AWP | Worm God (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 58$6.141.6%2438.00.63×
StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 48$5.651.8%4745.31.04×
StatTrak™ AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 65$5.591.3%3133.60.92×
StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 82$5.501.0%1526.80.56×
StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 75$5.371.1%2429.30.82×
AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 65$5.371.2%2233.70.65×
AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 90$5.060.8%2824.41.15×
AWP | Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 73$4.711.0%3530.01.17×
AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 77$4.600.9%3328.51.16×
AWP | Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 51$4.501.3%5243.21.20×
AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 57$4.281.1%3538.60.91×
AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 67$4.090.9%3832.61.16×
AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 61$3.961.0%3135.90.86×
AWP | Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 52$3.921.1%6142.01.45×
AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 56$3.831.0%3538.80.90×
AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 51$3.811.1%3442.60.80×
AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 53$3.391.0%4041.80.96×
AWP | Worm God (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 42$2.781.0%4952.30.94×
StatTrak™ AWP | Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 35$2.751.2%7062.61.12×
AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 29$2.521.3%7476.30.97×
AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 32$2.451.2%6168.30.89×
AWP | PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 56$2.370.6%4539.41.14×
StatTrak™ AWP | Capillary (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 46$2.200.7%4447.30.93×
AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 46$2.030.7%5147.91.06×
StatTrak™ AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 44$1.710.6%3950.20.78×
StatTrak™ AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 43$1.670.6%5251.21.02×
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 41$1.450.5%5753.61.06×
AWP | Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 38$1.230.5%4257.40.73×
AWP | Acheron (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 56$1.180.3%4239.11.07×
AWP | Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 52$1.140.3%3442.30.80×
AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 67$1.050.2%3532.71.07×
AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 95$0.980.2%3223.11.39×
AWP | Acheron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 85$0.940.2%2425.90.93×
AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 83$0.790.1%2726.41.02×
AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 100$0.780.1%3822.01.73×
AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 89$0.310.1%2924.61.18×
AWP | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon1 in 79$0.210.0%027.60.00×
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 71$0.210.0%030.80.00×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/awp, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$7.2192.00%145
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$7.2192.00%145
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$7.2192.00%145
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$7.2192.09%145
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$7.2192.03%145
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$7.2192.04%145
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$7.2192.08%145
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$7.2192.10%145
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$7.2192.00%145
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$7.2192.00%145
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$7.2192.00%145
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$7.2192.00%145
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$7.2192.06%145
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$7.2192.05%145
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$7.2192.09%145
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$7.2192.06%145
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$7.2192.09%145
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$7.2192.00%145
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$7.2192.09%145
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$7.2192.00%145
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$7.2192.00%145
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$7.2192.03%145
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$7.2192.09%145
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$7.2192.04%145
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$7.2192.04%145
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$7.2192.07%145
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$7.2192.07%145
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$7.2192.00%145
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$7.2192.02%145
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$7.2192.00%145
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.6%Legendary 1.8%classified 12.5%#d32ee6 0.0%red 0.0%Covert 0.0%Classified 0.2%restricted 34.8%Restricted 0.9%industrial 3.5%#d32ce6 0.1%rare 0.3%uncommon 0.5%Mythical 4.9%mil spec 6.4%Industrial Grade 0.8%Rare 4.7%#4b69ff 2.8%#8847ff 9.4%violet 5.7%Mil Spec Grade 2.2%milspec 6.5%Uncommon 1.3%best hit —