AWP Case

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$3.96

Advertised RTP

75.88%

EV $3.00 from 166 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.71%

5,480 openings, odds method

Variance

25.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 23

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

74.78%±26.831,356 openings

7 days

72.31%±14.913,820 openings

30 days

71.71%±12.785,480 openings

since tracking started

71.71%±12.785,480 openings

47.5%75.0%102.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,356	74.78%±26.8	−0.2σ	odds
7d	3,820	72.31%±14.9	−0.4σ	odds
30d	5,480	71.71%±12.8	−0.5σ	odds
All	5,480	71.71%±12.8	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values166 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,505 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$5,357	1.8%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$1,411	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 33,333	$538	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$461	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$302	0.5%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$273	0.5%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$223	0.5%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$194	0.5%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$173	0.5%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$168	0.5%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$163	0.5%	1	0.6	—
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$159	0.5%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$158	0.6%	2	0.6	—
AWP \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$157	0.5%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 7,692	$122	0.5%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$119	0.6%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$112	0.6%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$111	0.6%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| Snake Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 6,667	$109	0.5%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$102	0.5%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Snake Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,882	$98.56	0.6%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$86.23	0.5%	2	1.0	1.91×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$82.90	0.6%	1	1.1	0.91×
AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$81.42	0.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$79.26	0.6%	1	1.2	0.87×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,762	$78.79	0.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$72.59	0.5%	4	1.2	3.30×
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,167	$70.33	0.6%	2	1.3	1.51×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$69.28	0.5%	2	1.3	1.58×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$68.80	0.5%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$66.69	0.6%	1	1.4	0.73×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 4,000	$64.50	0.5%	1	1.4	0.73×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$64.34	0.6%	1	1.4	0.70×
AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · Legendary	1 in 4,000	$63.77	0.5%	0	1.4	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$58.61	0.5%	2	1.5	1.30×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$55.00	0.5%	3	1.7	1.82×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$52.46	0.5%	2	1.7	1.17×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$52.39	0.5%	3	1.7	1.76×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$51.13	0.5%	1	1.8	0.57×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$49.78	0.5%	3	1.8	1.65×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$49.75	0.5%	2	1.8	1.10×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$49.18	0.5%	3	1.8	1.65×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,778	$45.18	0.5%	2	2.0	1.01×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$45.07	0.5%	1	2.0	0.50×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,703	$44.23	0.5%	1	2.0	0.49×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$43.62	0.6%	5	2.1	2.39×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$42.25	0.5%	0	2.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$42.11	0.5%	3	2.1	1.43×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,564	$40.79	0.5%	1	2.1	0.47×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 2,500	$40.53	0.5%	0	2.2	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,439	$40.40	0.6%	2	2.3	0.89×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 2,381	$38.42	0.5%	0	2.3	0.00×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$35.93	0.5%	1	2.5	0.40×
AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 2,128	$35.25	0.6%	3	2.6	1.16×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,174	$35.15	0.5%	3	2.5	1.18×
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,128	$34.24	0.5%	1	2.6	0.39×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,000	$32.86	0.5%	1	2.8	0.36×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,923	$31.55	0.5%	5	2.9	1.75×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,887	$31.19	0.6%	2	2.9	0.69×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,724	$28.15	0.5%	3	3.2	0.94×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,695	$27.64	0.5%	3	3.2	0.92×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,695	$27.52	0.5%	4	3.2	1.23×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,667	$26.81	0.5%	3	3.3	0.91×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,639	$26.75	0.5%	6	3.4	1.79×
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,613	$26.57	0.5%	6	3.4	1.76×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,613	$26.23	0.5%	5	3.4	1.46×
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 1,471	$23.88	0.5%	2	3.7	0.53×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$23.28	0.5%	4	3.9	1.04×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$23.18	0.5%	13	3.9	3.37×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,389	$22.77	0.5%	3	4.0	0.76×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,370	$22.21	0.5%	6	4.0	1.49×
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,299	$21.08	0.5%	6	4.2	1.42×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,299	$21.02	0.5%	3	4.2	0.71×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,282	$21.02	0.5%	3	4.3	0.70×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,282	$20.91	0.5%	3	4.3	0.70×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,266	$20.56	0.5%	6	4.3	1.38×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,250	$20.47	0.5%	6	4.4	1.36×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,075	$17.45	0.5%	7	5.1	1.37×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,042	$17.07	0.5%	9	5.3	1.70×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 952	$15.44	0.5%	9	5.8	1.56×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 943	$15.43	0.5%	9	5.8	1.54×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 952	$15.39	0.5%	13	5.8	2.25×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 943	$15.27	0.5%	2	5.8	0.34×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 840	$13.66	0.5%	4	6.6	0.61×
AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 840	$13.66	0.5%	6	6.6	0.92×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 820	$13.36	0.5%	6	6.7	0.89×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 746	$12.11	0.5%	14	7.4	1.90×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 699	$11.38	0.5%	12	7.9	1.52×
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 690	$11.28	0.5%	7	8.0	0.88×
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 694	$11.28	0.5%	13	7.9	1.64×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 690	$11.28	0.5%	7	8.0	0.88×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 667	$10.83	0.5%	10	8.3	1.21×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 645	$10.53	0.5%	8	8.5	0.94×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 637	$10.40	0.5%	12	8.6	1.39×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 637	$10.38	0.5%	6	8.6	0.69×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 606	$9.83	0.5%	11	9.1	1.21×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 588	$9.60	0.5%	12	9.4	1.28×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 581	$9.45	0.5%	13	9.5	1.37×
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 565	$9.20	0.5%	13	9.7	1.33×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 562	$9.17	0.5%	13	9.8	1.33×
AWP \| Acheron (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 541	$8.82	0.5%	10	10.2	0.98×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 524	$8.56	0.5%	10	10.5	0.95×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 524	$8.52	0.5%	12	10.5	1.14×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 518	$8.44	0.5%	8	10.6	0.75×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 508	$8.27	0.5%	9	10.8	0.83×
AWP \| PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 508	$8.26	0.5%	11	10.8	1.01×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 498	$8.12	0.5%	15	11.1	1.36×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 500	$8.12	0.5%	7	11.0	0.64×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 483	$7.88	0.5%	12	11.4	1.05×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 444	$7.25	0.5%	12	12.4	0.97×
AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 435	$7.06	0.5%	11	12.7	0.87×
AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 429	$6.99	0.5%	13	12.8	1.01×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 408	$6.65	0.5%	12	13.5	0.89×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 408	$6.64	0.5%	20	13.5	1.48×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 405	$6.59	0.5%	14	13.6	1.03×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 403	$6.57	0.5%	17	13.7	1.25×
AWP \| Capillary (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 397	$6.45	0.5%	14	13.9	1.01×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 391	$6.38	0.5%	15	14.1	1.06×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 373	$6.07	0.5%	16	14.8	1.08×
AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 372	$6.07	0.5%	12	14.8	0.81×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 368	$6.00	0.5%	9	15.0	0.60×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 366	$5.96	0.5%	16	15.0	1.06×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 364	$5.92	0.5%	18	15.1	1.19×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 364	$5.91	0.5%	11	15.1	0.73×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 357	$5.82	0.5%	20	15.4	1.30×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 312	$5.08	0.5%	16	17.7	0.91×
AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 301	$4.91	0.5%	16	18.3	0.88×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 291	$4.74	0.5%	21	18.9	1.11×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 287	$4.68	0.5%	18	19.2	0.94×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 273	$4.46	0.5%	21	20.1	1.04×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 265	$4.33	0.5%	21	20.8	1.01×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 260	$4.25	0.5%	17	21.1	0.80×
AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 258	$4.19	0.5%	30	21.4	1.40×
AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 252	$4.10	0.5%	14	21.9	0.64×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 245	$4.00	0.5%	34	22.5	1.51×
AWP \| Black Nile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 236	$3.85	0.5%	21	23.3	0.90×
AWP \| Black Nile (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 224	$3.64	0.5%	33	24.6	1.34×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 214	$3.48	0.5%	27	25.8	1.05×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 204	$3.32	0.5%	32	27.0	1.18×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 193	$3.14	0.5%	41	28.6	1.44×
AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 183	$2.98	0.5%	33	30.1	1.10×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 181	$2.95	0.5%	46	30.4	1.51×
AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 106	$2.92	0.9%	48	51.9	0.92×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 97	$2.68	0.9%	63	56.6	1.11×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 93	$2.55	0.9%	50	59.5	0.84×
AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$2.51	0.9%	53	60.4	0.88×
AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 90	$2.48	0.9%	54	61.2	0.88×
AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 86	$2.36	0.9%	74	64.2	1.15×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 78	$2.15	0.9%	75	70.5	1.06×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 71	$1.96	0.9%	81	77.4	1.05×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 70	$1.93	0.9%	81	78.6	1.03×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$1.74	0.9%	92	87.1	1.06×
AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 52	$1.44	0.9%	86	105.3	0.82×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 45	$1.23	0.9%	117	123.3	0.95×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$1.23	0.9%	111	123.3	0.90×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$1.22	0.9%	132	124.3	1.06×
AWP \| Acheron (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 44	$1.22	0.9%	109	124.3	0.88×
AWP \| Acheron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 43	$1.19	0.9%	123	127.4	0.97×
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 41	$1.14	0.9%	127	133.1	0.95×
AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 39	$1.07	0.9%	140	141.8	0.99×
AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 38	$1.04	0.9%	140	145.8	0.96×
AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 37	$1.02	0.9%	110	148.7	0.74×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$0.38	0.9%	428	399.1	1.07×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon	12.0%	$0.23	0.9%	638	659.4	0.97×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	13.1%	$0.21	0.9%	721	722.2	1.00×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	13.1%	$0.21	0.9%	712	722.2	0.99×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/awp, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertBrozer$4.50$31169.19x5d

AWP | Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedBigtrubl$3.96$22356.21x11h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Acheron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspechubiogr$3.96$1.190.30x31s

StatTrak™ AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffhubiogr$3.96$6.071.53x40s

AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted𝐂𝐈𝐔𝐊𝐘 ᶜᴷʸ$3.96$1.220.31x1m

StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted𝐂𝐈𝐔𝐊𝐘 ᶜᴷʸ$3.96$5.821.47x1m

AWP | Acheron (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec𝐂𝐈𝐔𝐊𝐘 ᶜᴷʸ$3.96$1.220.31x1m

AWP | POP AWP (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff𝐂𝐈𝐔𝐊𝐘 ᶜᴷʸ$3.96$7.061.78x2m

AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff𝐂𝐈𝐔𝐊𝐘 ᶜᴷʸ$3.96$1.230.31x2m

AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffNAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNIIIIIIII$3.96$1.140.29x3m

AWP | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · UncommonBongHits$3.96$0.230.06x3m

AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffUser$3.96$1.140.29x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$3.96	75.88%	166
10 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$3.96	75.85%	166
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$4.50	76.17%	166
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$4.50	76.05%	166
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$4.50	76.01%	166
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$4.50	75.93%	166
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$4.50	76.05%	166
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$4.50	76.04%	166
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$4.50	75.86%	166
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$4.50	75.83%	166
3 Nov, 22:52 UTC	$4.50	75.94%	166
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$3.78	76.08%	166
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$3.78	75.81%	166

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.6%#d32ee6 0.0%classified 3.0%red 0.1%mil spec 2.1%industrial 33.8%Legendary 0.5%restricted 14.6%Classified 0.2%Restricted 0.2%#d32ce6 0.3%Mythical 2.0%#4b69ff 5.5%violet 1.4%Rare 5.8%#8847ff 5.9%Industrial Grade 0.2%blue 1.1%pink 0.4%Mil Spec Grade 1.7%milspec 8.6%Uncommon 12.0%best hit $311 (69.19x)