AWP Stash

A case on Hellcase (devices), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$3.00

Advertised RTP

87.84%

EV $2.64 from 239 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.87%

3,090 openings, odds method

Variance

11.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 33

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

146 openings · below min

7 days

80.61%±15.141,905 openings

30 days

86.87%±12.133,090 openings

since tracking started

86.87%±12.133,090 openings

61.0%116.0%171.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	146	115.98%±54.5	—	odds
7d	1,905	80.61%±15.1	−1.0σ	odds
30d	3,090	86.87%±12.1	−0.1σ	odds
All	3,090	86.87%±12.1	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values239 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,110 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 33,333	$279	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 25,000	$274	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$273	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$266	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$238	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$223	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25,000	$207	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 25,000	$205	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$194	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 20,000	$187	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$176	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$173	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$171	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$168	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$164	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$163	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 16,667	$162	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$158	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$157	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$150	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 16,667	$142	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$141	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$141	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$127	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$126	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$123	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$122	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 12,500	$122	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$119	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$117	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12,500	$115	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$112	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$112	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$111	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$110	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Snake Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11,111	$109	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$107	0.3%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$106	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$102	0.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$98.92	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Snake Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$98.56	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$93.56	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$93.40	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 9,091	$89.05	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$88.28	0.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$86.23	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$85.78	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$84.88	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$82.90	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 9,091	$82.12	0.3%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$81.42	0.3%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$80.94	0.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$79.26	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$78.79	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$78.74	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$74.03	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$72.59	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$70.33	0.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$69.28	0.4%	2	0.4	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$68.80	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$68.06	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$66.69	0.4%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 7,143	$66.14	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 6,667	$64.50	0.4%	1	0.5	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$64.34	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · Legendary	1 in 6,667	$63.77	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$58.61	0.4%	2	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$55.64	0.4%	1	0.6	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$55.00	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$54.05	0.3%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$52.46	0.4%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$52.39	0.4%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$51.13	0.3%	2	0.6	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$49.78	0.4%	1	0.6	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$49.75	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$49.63	0.4%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$49.18	0.4%	1	0.6	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$47.75	0.4%	2	0.6	—
AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 5,000	$47.33	0.4%	1	0.6	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$46.24	0.4%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,762	$45.93	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$45.18	0.4%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$45.07	0.4%	3	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$44.23	0.4%	1	0.7	—
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$43.62	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$42.97	0.4%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$42.25	0.4%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$42.11	0.4%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,167	$40.79	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 4,167	$40.53	0.4%	1	0.7	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$40.40	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$40.39	0.4%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$39.42	0.4%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 4,000	$38.42	0.4%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$37.52	0.4%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$35.93	0.4%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 3,571	$35.25	0.4%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,704	$35.15	0.4%	2	0.8	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 3,704	$35.13	0.4%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,571	$34.24	0.4%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 3,448	$33.00	0.4%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 3,448	$32.86	0.4%	2	0.9	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$32.03	0.4%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$31.81	0.4%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$31.76	0.4%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,226	$31.55	0.4%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,226	$31.19	0.4%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$30.49	0.4%	2	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$29.46	0.4%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,941	$28.15	0.4%	1	1.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,941	$27.64	0.4%	2	1.1	1.89×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,857	$27.52	0.4%	1	1.1	0.92×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,857	$27.41	0.4%	1	1.1	0.92×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,857	$26.81	0.4%	1	1.1	0.92×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$26.75	0.4%	1	1.1	0.89×
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$26.57	0.4%	1	1.1	0.89×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,703	$26.23	0.4%	1	1.2	0.87×
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 2,500	$23.88	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,439	$23.28	0.4%	1	1.3	0.78×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$23.18	0.4%	1	1.3	0.77×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,381	$22.77	0.4%	1	1.3	0.77×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 2,326	$22.51	0.4%	1	1.3	0.75×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,326	$22.21	0.4%	1	1.3	0.75×
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,174	$21.08	0.4%	3	1.4	2.10×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$21.02	0.4%	1	1.4	0.70×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,222	$21.02	0.4%	2	1.4	1.43×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,174	$20.91	0.4%	1	1.4	0.70×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 2,174	$20.56	0.4%	3	1.4	2.10×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$20.56	0.4%	2	1.4	1.40×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,128	$20.47	0.4%	3	1.5	2.05×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,852	$17.72	0.4%	3	1.7	1.79×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,818	$17.45	0.4%	2	1.7	1.17×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,786	$17.07	0.4%	2	1.7	1.15×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,613	$15.44	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,613	$15.43	0.4%	3	1.9	1.56×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,613	$15.39	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,613	$15.27	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,562	$15.13	0.4%	1	2.0	0.50×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$13.66	0.4%	1	2.2	0.46×
AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,408	$13.66	0.4%	2	2.2	0.91×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,408	$13.36	0.4%	4	2.2	1.81×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,351	$12.90	0.4%	3	2.3	1.30×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,282	$12.11	0.4%	2	2.4	0.82×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,190	$11.38	0.4%	0	2.6	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 1,176	$11.35	0.4%	1	2.6	0.38×
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,176	$11.28	0.4%	2	2.6	0.76×
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 1,190	$11.28	0.4%	0	2.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,176	$11.28	0.4%	3	2.6	1.13×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,163	$11.09	0.4%	3	2.7	1.12×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 1,136	$10.84	0.4%	2	2.7	0.73×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,136	$10.83	0.4%	4	2.7	1.46×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,099	$10.53	0.4%	5	2.8	1.77×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,087	$10.40	0.4%	5	2.9	1.75×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,087	$10.38	0.4%	1	2.9	0.35×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,031	$9.83	0.4%	6	3.0	1.99×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,010	$9.60	0.4%	2	3.1	0.65×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 990	$9.45	0.4%	4	3.1	1.27×
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 962	$9.20	0.4%	4	3.2	1.24×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 962	$9.17	0.4%	2	3.2	0.62×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 943	$9.03	0.4%	3	3.3	0.91×
AWP \| Acheron (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 926	$8.82	0.4%	4	3.4	1.19×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 901	$8.56	0.4%	6	3.5	1.74×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 885	$8.52	0.4%	5	3.5	1.42×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 877	$8.44	0.4%	3	3.5	0.85×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 862	$8.27	0.4%	2	3.6	0.55×
AWP \| PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 862	$8.26	0.4%	1	3.6	0.28×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 855	$8.12	0.4%	2	3.6	0.55×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 847	$8.12	0.4%	2	3.7	0.54×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 826	$7.88	0.4%	2	3.8	0.53×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 758	$7.25	0.4%	2	4.1	0.49×
AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 741	$7.06	0.4%	5	4.2	1.19×
AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 730	$6.99	0.4%	7	4.3	1.64×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 699	$6.65	0.4%	6	4.4	1.35×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 694	$6.64	0.4%	3	4.5	0.67×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 694	$6.61	0.4%	4	4.5	0.89×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 690	$6.59	0.4%	1	4.5	0.22×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 685	$6.57	0.4%	5	4.5	1.10×
AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 676	$6.46	0.4%	3	4.6	0.65×
AWP \| Capillary (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 676	$6.45	0.4%	6	4.6	1.30×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 667	$6.38	0.4%	8	4.7	1.71×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 667	$6.36	0.4%	3	4.7	0.64×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 633	$6.07	0.4%	4	4.9	0.81×
AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 637	$6.07	0.4%	3	4.9	0.61×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 625	$6.00	0.4%	5	5.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 629	$6.00	0.4%	3	4.9	0.61×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 621	$5.96	0.4%	4	5.0	0.80×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 617	$5.92	0.4%	3	5.0	0.60×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 617	$5.91	0.4%	5	5.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 606	$5.82	0.4%	5	5.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 568	$5.42	0.4%	4	5.5	0.73×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 532	$5.08	0.4%	7	5.8	1.20×
AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 513	$4.91	0.4%	5	6.1	0.82×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 495	$4.74	0.4%	6	6.3	0.96×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 490	$4.68	0.4%	13	6.3	2.05×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 476	$4.57	0.4%	8	6.5	1.22×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 467	$4.46	0.4%	11	6.7	1.65×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 452	$4.33	0.4%	4	6.9	0.58×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 442	$4.25	0.4%	7	7.0	1.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 437	$4.19	0.4%	7	7.1	0.98×
AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 429	$4.10	0.4%	6	7.2	0.83×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 418	$4.00	0.4%	10	7.4	1.35×
AWP \| Black Nile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 403	$3.85	0.4%	6	7.7	0.78×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 398	$3.81	0.4%	6	7.8	0.77×
AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 392	$3.75	0.4%	11	7.9	1.39×
AWP \| Black Nile (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 380	$3.64	0.4%	7	8.2	0.86×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 364	$3.48	0.4%	8	8.6	0.94×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 346	$3.32	0.4%	9	9.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 328	$3.14	0.4%	10	9.5	1.05×
AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 312	$2.98	0.4%	11	10.0	1.10×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 309	$2.95	0.4%	7	10.1	0.69×
AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 306	$2.92	0.4%	6	10.2	0.59×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 280	$2.68	0.4%	4	11.1	0.36×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 112	$2.55	0.9%	14	27.7	0.51×
AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 111	$2.51	0.9%	24	28.1	0.85×
AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 109	$2.48	0.9%	29	28.4	1.02×
AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 104	$2.36	0.9%	25	29.9	0.84×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 95	$2.15	0.9%	34	32.8	1.04×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 86	$1.96	0.9%	42	36.0	1.17×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 85	$1.93	0.9%	39	36.5	1.07×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 77	$1.74	0.9%	29	40.6	0.72×
AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 63	$1.44	0.9%	45	49.0	0.92×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 54	$1.23	0.9%	57	57.3	0.99×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$1.23	0.9%	55	57.3	0.96×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$1.22	0.9%	53	57.8	0.92×
AWP \| Acheron (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 54	$1.22	0.9%	60	57.8	1.04×
AWP \| Acheron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 52	$1.19	0.9%	78	59.3	1.32×
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$1.14	0.9%	60	61.9	0.97×
AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 47	$1.07	0.9%	78	65.9	1.18×
AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 46	$1.04	0.9%	49	67.8	0.72×
AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 45	$1.02	0.9%	66	69.2	0.95×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 45	$1.02	0.9%	63	69.1	0.91×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 28	$0.64	0.9%	109	110.2	0.99×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 21	$0.48	0.9%	153	146.9	1.04×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 21	$0.48	0.9%	147	147.0	1.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$0.46	0.9%	145	153.3	0.95×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$0.38	0.9%	158	185.6	0.85×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 10	$0.23	0.9%	340	306.7	1.11×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	10.8%	$0.21	0.9%	343	335.9	1.02×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	10.8%	$0.21	0.9%	382	335.9	1.14×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/awp-cs, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Silk Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedNomadu'$3.00$27390.92x1d

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertAsh683xorynynvx$2.52$15059.57x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialoxzy$3.00$0.380.13x6m

AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecKayoba$3.00$1.040.35x9m

AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec GradeGomes$3.00$3.481.16x12m

AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedDiamond$3.00$1.220.41x38m

AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialrwiktor1995$3.00$0.380.13x43m

AWP | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial\.|./ Nádegas a declarar!$3.00$0.210.07x1h

AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified\.|./ Nádegas a declarar!$3.00$4.331.44x1h

AWP | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial\.|./ Nádegas a declarar!$3.00$0.210.07x1h

AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted\.|./ Nádegas a declarar!$3.00$4.911.64x1h

AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert\.|./ Nádegas a declarar!$3.00$51.1317.04x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.84%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$3.00	87.84%	239
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$3.00	87.87%	239
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$3.00	87.90%	239
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$3.00	87.98%	239
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$3.00	87.93%	239
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$3.00	87.96%	239
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$3.00	88.01%	239
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$3.00	88.06%	239
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$3.00	87.89%	239
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$3.00	87.88%	239
3 Nov, 22:52 UTC	$3.00	88.00%	239
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$2.52	87.91%	239
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$2.52	87.89%	239

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedLegendary 0.4%classified 2.1%covert 0.7%restricted 9.8%Covert 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.1%mil spec 1.6%rare 0.1%industrial 27.7%Classified 0.3%Restricted 0.1%pink 1.5%#d32ce6 0.3%uncommon 0.2%Mythical 1.4%#4b69ff 4.4%violet 0.8%Rare 4.8%#8847ff 4.2%Industrial Grade 0.1%blue 8.9%Mil Spec Grade 1.3%milspec 14.3%Mil Spec 4.7%Uncommon 9.9%best hit $273 (90.92x)