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God of Skins

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$999.00
999 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
86.46%
EV $863.76 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.80%
1,984 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
86.19%±7.95201 openings
7 days
87.37%±2.741,697 openings
30 days
86.80%±2.531,984 openings
since tracking started
86.80%±2.531,984 openings
77.5%86.3%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h20186.19%±7.95−0.1σodds
7d1,69787.37%±2.74+0.6σodds
30d1,98486.80%±2.53+0.2σodds
All1,98486.80%±2.53+0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,987 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$7,047 7,047 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%02.00.00×
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband1 in 500$6,063 6,063 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%54.01.26×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified1 in 500$2,758 2,758 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%14.00.25×
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 500$2,536 2,536 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%74.01.76×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby1 in 250$2,488 2,488 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%107.91.26×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 200$2,395 2,395 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%89.90.81×
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 200$2,330 2,330 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%89.90.81×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 200$2,213 2,213 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%99.90.91×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 200$2,200 2,200 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%139.91.31×
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 200$2,021 2,021 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%39.90.30×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 200$1,963 1,963 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%109.91.01×
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 100$1,962 1,962 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%2419.91.21×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 41 in 100$1,847 1,847 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%2019.91.01×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 41 in 100$1,844 1,844 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%1519.90.75×
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 100$1,756 1,756 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%1619.90.81×
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 100$1,546 1,546 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%1719.90.86×
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 100$1,515 1,515 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%2019.91.01×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary1 in 100$1,406 1,406 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%2619.91.31×
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 50$1,321 1,321 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%3639.70.91×
★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 50$1,213 1,213 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%4839.71.21×
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 50$1,209 1,209 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%5339.71.33×
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 50$1,168 1,168 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.7%3039.70.75×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly KnifeStatTrak · knife · covert1 in 50$1,143 1,143 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%4539.71.13×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic1 in 33$1,102 1,102 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%1559.60.25×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 33$1,101 1,101 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%8059.61.34×
★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25$1,046 1,046 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.8%7079.50.88×
★ Talon Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 20$1,026 1,026 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.8%7997.40.81×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 20$1,001 1,001 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.8%10899.31.09×
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 25$904 904 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.2%9379.51.17×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 25$866 866 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.0%8379.51.04×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 25$732 732 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%7179.50.89×
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 25$673 673 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%8279.51.03×
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 25$613 613 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%8679.51.08×
★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 25$559 559 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%9079.51.13×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic1 in 25$538 538 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%8179.51.02×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 25$526 526 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%6379.50.79×
★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25$453 453 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%9879.51.23×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 25$435 435 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%7279.50.91×
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 33$358 358 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%5459.60.91×
★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 33$354 354 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%5159.60.86×
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 33$322 322 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%5359.60.89×
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 33$322 322 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%6059.61.01×
★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 33$277 277 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%4359.60.72×
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 50$256 256 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%4539.71.13×
★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 50$216 216 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%4239.71.06×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband200msRPZle974$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,0636,063 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.07x
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband.Chungis †🔗$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,0636,063 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.07x
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contrabandBlimppes$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,0636,063 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.07x
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contrabandGuzora$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,0636,063 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.07x
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contrabandSir Cloudmaker$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,0636,063 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.07x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · ClassifiedBob Shaft$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,7582,758 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.76x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireMuckFuslims$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5362,536 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.54x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireGirlhog Gaming$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5362,536 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.54x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireBitStop$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5362,536 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.54x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphirehaяek$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5362,536 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.54x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covertCapt. Grandpow$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$526526 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.53x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary†ҜØНɆҸНѦЯ†$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4061,406 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.41x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert<3 Dupreh$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3211,321 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.32x
★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knifeBabyfacejosh1k$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0461,046 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.05x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Babyfacejosh1k$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,3302,330 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.33x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertelvil caos$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$435435 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyelvil caos$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,2002,200 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.20x
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireBilly$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$256256 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.26x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicBilly$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1021,102 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.10x
★ Talon Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covertCatão$999999 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0261,026 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.03x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.46%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC$99986.46%45
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC$99986.59%45
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$99987.07%45
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 66.1%contraband 0.2%Classified 0.2%covert knife 16.5%sunny 3.5%legendary 1.5%Knives 1.0%epic 7.0%gold 4.0%best hit $6,063 (6.07x)