COVERT

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$25.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $21.88 from 133 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.45%

3,847 openings, odds method

Variance

7.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

61.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.19%±20.78653 openings

7 days

87.19%±9.962,915 openings

30 days

87.45%±8.833,847 openings

since tracking started

87.45%±8.833,847 openings

69.0%90.3%111.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	653	90.19%±20.8	+0.2σ	odds
7d	2,915	87.19%±9.96	−0.1σ	odds
30d	3,847	87.45%±8.83	−0.0σ	odds
All	3,847	87.45%±8.83	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values133 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,847 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$10.2K	0.9%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$6,311	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$5,557	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$2,767	0.4%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$2,142	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$921	0.3%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$609	0.3%	1	0.4	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$411	0.3%	1	0.6	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$285	0.3%	0	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$273	0.3%	2	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 3,448	$222	0.3%	4	1.1	3.59×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 3,448	$220	0.3%	2	1.1	1.79×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$214	0.3%	1	1.2	0.87×
P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$204	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,439	$154	0.3%	2	1.6	1.27×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,381	$152	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,381	$150	0.3%	1	1.6	0.62×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,326	$149	0.3%	1	1.7	0.60×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 2,326	$148	0.3%	1	1.7	0.60×
AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 2,273	$145	0.3%	2	1.7	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,273	$144	0.3%	2	1.7	1.18×
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,174	$137	0.3%	4	1.8	2.26×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$136	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$135	0.3%	2	1.8	1.11×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$134	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$134	0.3%	1	1.8	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$127	0.3%	2	1.9	1.04×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$122	0.3%	3	2.0	1.50×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,887	$119	0.3%	3	2.0	1.47×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$110	0.3%	4	2.2	1.82×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,613	$101	0.3%	0	2.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$101	0.3%	2	2.4	0.83×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,562	$99.16	0.3%	0	2.5	0.00×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$96.47	0.3%	4	2.5	1.60×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 110	$92.38	3.9%	15	35.1	0.43×
AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$91.11	3.9%	26	35.6	0.73×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 469	$87.50	0.9%	6	8.2	0.73×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 877	$86.69	0.5%	2	4.4	0.46×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 585	$83.03	0.6%	4	6.6	0.61×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 535	$82.85	0.7%	2	7.2	0.28×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 526	$81.30	0.7%	6	7.3	0.82×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 341	$74.49	1.0%	4	11.3	0.35×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 341	$74.47	1.0%	15	11.3	1.33×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 329	$73.13	1.0%	9	11.7	0.77×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 297	$70.76	1.1%	11	13.0	0.85×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 274	$67.04	1.1%	11	14.0	0.78×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 450	$67.00	0.7%	6	8.5	0.70×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 376	$65.37	0.8%	10	10.2	0.98×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 77	$64.58	3.9%	67	50.2	1.33×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 412	$62.98	0.7%	2	9.3	0.21×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 345	$62.50	0.8%	7	11.2	0.63×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 524	$58.32	0.5%	4	7.3	0.54×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 532	$58.10	0.5%	7	7.2	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 433	$57.86	0.6%	4	8.9	0.45×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 386	$57.38	0.7%	9	10.0	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 395	$57.20	0.7%	8	9.7	0.82×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 552	$56.68	0.5%	3	7.0	0.43×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 746	$56.08	0.3%	3	5.2	0.58×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 535	$55.32	0.5%	1	7.2	0.14×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 524	$55.21	0.5%	9	7.3	1.22×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 391	$54.95	0.6%	11	9.8	1.12×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 505	$54.81	0.5%	11	7.6	1.44×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 459	$54.51	0.5%	10	8.4	1.19×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 602	$54.19	0.4%	1	6.4	0.16×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 452	$54.15	0.5%	3	8.5	0.35×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 341	$53.97	0.7%	4	11.3	0.35×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 505	$53.97	0.5%	2	7.6	0.26×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 478	$53.32	0.5%	4	8.0	0.50×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 490	$53.18	0.5%	5	7.8	0.64×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 444	$53.10	0.5%	7	8.7	0.81×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 485	$53.04	0.5%	4	7.9	0.50×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 474	$52.52	0.5%	5	8.1	0.62×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 435	$52.50	0.6%	7	8.8	0.79×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 329	$52.17	0.7%	5	11.7	0.43×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 328	$50.31	0.7%	8	11.7	0.68×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 439	$50.22	0.5%	6	8.8	0.68×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 424	$49.30	0.5%	8	9.1	0.88×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 424	$49.23	0.5%	12	9.1	1.32×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 410	$48.53	0.5%	4	9.4	0.43×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 433	$46.68	0.5%	6	8.9	0.68×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 437	$46.10	0.5%	6	8.8	0.68×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 474	$44.98	0.4%	4	8.1	0.49×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 541	$44.80	0.4%	3	7.1	0.42×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 450	$43.99	0.4%	4	8.5	0.47×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 323	$43.82	0.6%	6	11.9	0.50×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 379	$42.85	0.5%	6	10.2	0.59×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 365	$42.84	0.5%	8	10.5	0.76×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 426	$42.82	0.5%	5	9.0	0.55×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 318	$42.81	0.6%	10	12.1	0.83×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 365	$42.18	0.5%	9	10.5	0.85×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 304	$41.80	0.6%	3	12.7	0.24×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 357	$41.68	0.5%	6	10.8	0.56×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 300	$41.56	0.6%	11	12.8	0.86×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 352	$41.37	0.5%	7	10.9	0.64×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 392	$41.10	0.5%	3	9.8	0.31×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 391	$40.96	0.5%	4	9.8	0.41×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 341	$40.70	0.5%	4	11.3	0.35×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 418	$40.27	0.4%	7	9.2	0.76×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 377	$39.83	0.5%	10	10.2	0.98×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 366	$39.59	0.5%	8	10.5	0.76×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 310	$39.44	0.6%	4	12.4	0.32×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 348	$38.61	0.5%	13	11.0	1.18×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 365	$37.60	0.5%	5	10.5	0.47×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 331	$37.58	0.5%	7	11.6	0.60×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 146	$37.37	1.2%	16	26.4	0.61×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 105	$37.09	1.6%	21	36.7	0.57×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 136	$36.60	1.2%	10	28.2	0.35×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 142	$35.42	1.1%	26	27.2	0.96×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 148	$35.40	1.1%	23	26.0	0.88×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 117	$33.91	1.3%	15	32.8	0.46×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 122	$32.83	1.2%	20	31.6	0.63×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 77	$31.79	1.9%	22	50.0	0.44×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 101	$31.14	1.4%	25	38.0	0.66×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 113	$30.97	1.3%	20	34.0	0.59×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 113	$30.97	1.3%	24	34.0	0.71×
Charm \| Quick Silvercharm · red	1 in 31	$30.71	4.5%	110	122.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 29	$28.45	4.5%	116	131.8	0.88×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 79	$27.90	1.6%	30	48.4	0.62×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 175	$26.79	0.7%	7	22.0	0.32×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 46	$24.05	2.4%	119	83.3	1.43×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 194	$19.53	0.5%	17	19.9	0.86×
Charm \| Glitter Bombcharm · red	1 in 37	$14.74	1.8%	112	103.3	1.08×
Charm \| Lil' Serpentcharm · red	1 in 37	$14.12	1.8%	98	105.1	0.93×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 118	$13.67	0.5%	27	32.7	0.83×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 111	$13.09	0.5%	20	34.7	0.58×
Sticker \| Digi-Strikesticker · red	1 in 24	$5.12	1.0%	176	157.8	1.12×
Sticker \| Eyes In The Skysticker · pink	1 in 16	$1.86	0.5%	260	236.5	1.10×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 16	$1.84	0.5%	244	237.5	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 16	$1.68	0.5%	250	246.3	1.01×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$1.36	0.4%	269	268.1	1.00×
SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$1.30	0.4%	261	272.9	0.96×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$1.28	0.4%	263	274.6	0.96×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 13	$1.18	0.4%	283	285.3	0.99×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/covert, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$25.00$2,816112.7x5d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$25.00$61724.68x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violetゼロツー$25.00$1.280.05x1h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Factory New)weapon · grayゼロツー$25.00$1.180.05x1h

XM1014 | Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violetゼロツー$25.00$1.300.05x1h

AK-47 | Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red$25.00$38.171.53x1h

M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$25.00$1.420.06x1h

Charm | Lil' Serpentcharm · red$25.00$13.470.54x1h

Sticker | Digi-Strikesticker · red$25.00$5.120.20x1h

AK-47 | The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare$25.00$31.601.26x1h

USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient$25.00$38.151.53x1h

SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Well-Worn)weapon · blue$25.00$1.300.05x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$25.00	87.50%	133
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$25.00	87.57%	133
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$25.00	87.87%	133
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$25.00	87.28%	133
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$25.00	87.71%	133
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$25.00	87.29%	133
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$25.00	87.23%	133
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$25.00	87.19%	133
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$25.00	87.18%	133
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$25.00	87.58%	133
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$25.00	87.69%	133
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$25.00	87.25%	133
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$25.00	87.50%	133
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$25.00	87.81%	133
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$25.00	87.25%	133
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$25.00	87.74%	133
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$25.00	87.32%	133

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.6%epic 0.0%red 29.2%rare 3.7%Ancient 3.0%uncommon 0.5%Covert 0.2%#eb4b4b 0.5%pink 6.1%#8847ff 6.2%Mythical 6.4%violet 14.1%blue 7.1%gray 7.4%best hit $2,816 (112.7x)