JAINA

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$50.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $43.75 from 80 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.04%

7,624 openings, odds method

Variance

3.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.76%±10.731,107 openings

7 days

85.46%±4.965,414 openings

30 days

84.04%±4.157,624 openings

since tracking started

84.04%±4.157,624 openings

72.5%83.7%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,107	83.76%±10.7	−0.7σ	odds
7d	5,414	85.46%±4.96	−0.8σ	odds
30d	7,624	84.04%±4.15	−1.6σ	odds
All	7,624	84.04%±4.15	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values80 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,652 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$5,557	2.5%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,046	0.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,010	0.5%	2	1.5	1.31×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$867	0.4%	2	1.5	1.31×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$609	0.4%	5	2.3	2.18×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,333	$559	0.4%	1	2.3	0.44×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$542	0.4%	2	2.3	0.87×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$411	0.4%	1	3.1	0.33×
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$366	0.4%	3	3.8	0.78×
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$352	0.4%	5	3.8	1.31×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · gold · Phase 3	1 in 1,667	$283	0.4%	8	4.6	1.74×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$273	0.1%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$209	0.1%	1	1.5	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$207	0.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 238	$172	1.7%	19	32.1	0.59×
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 66	$156	5.4%	93	116.3	0.80×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 161	$154	2.2%	32	47.4	0.67×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 263	$148	1.3%	16	29.1	0.55×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$144	1.3%	18	30.6	0.59×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 227	$137	1.4%	26	33.7	0.77×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 208	$131	1.4%	16	36.7	0.44×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 101	$117	2.7%	61	75.8	0.81×
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 97	$115	2.7%	57	78.8	0.72×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 74	$104	3.2%	92	103.3	0.89×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 233	$104	1.0%	25	32.9	0.76×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 169	$89.33	1.2%	43	45.1	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 196	$88.74	1.0%	51	39.0	1.31×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 323	$86.69	0.6%	22	23.7	0.93×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 213	$83.03	0.9%	33	36.0	0.92×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 192	$82.85	1.0%	33	39.8	0.83×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 145	$82.41	1.3%	49	52.8	0.93×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 159	$82.37	1.2%	22	48.2	0.46×
★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 74	$79.86	2.5%	84	104.1	0.81×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 127	$76.89	1.4%	59	60.5	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 75	$71.65	2.2%	40	102.5	0.39×
★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 37	$68.49	4.3%	105	208.9	0.50×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$66.47	1.3%	35	65.8	0.53×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$58.32	2.1%	65	117.8	0.55×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 62	$54.81	2.0%	60	123.2	0.49×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$54.51	2.2%	80	135.4	0.59×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 75	$54.19	1.7%	65	102.5	0.63×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$54.15	2.2%	74	137.0	0.54×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$53.32	2.1%	80	130.1	0.61×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 67	$49.30	1.7%	121	114.0	1.06×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 102	$49.30	1.1%	55	75.0	0.73×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 67	$49.23	1.7%	106	114.0	0.93×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 71	$48.60	1.6%	76	107.1	0.71×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 108	$47.78	1.0%	63	71.2	0.89×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 105	$47.16	1.0%	58	72.7	0.80×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 108	$46.10	1.0%	53	71.2	0.74×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 102	$46.10	1.0%	50	75.0	0.67×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$45.47	1.6%	98	117.1	0.84×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 114	$43.99	0.9%	43	67.3	0.64×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$43.82	1.2%	70	94.1	0.74×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 102	$43.45	1.0%	57	75.0	0.76×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 476	$43.31	0.2%	12	16.1	0.75×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 96	$42.85	1.0%	58	79.6	0.73×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 90	$40.70	1.0%	63	84.9	0.74×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 88	$38.98	1.0%	64	87.2	0.73×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 78	$37.60	1.1%	57	97.9	0.58×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$36.63	1.0%	61	95.7	0.64×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 72	$35.42	1.1%	90	106.4	0.85×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 79	$33.91	1.0%	62	97.2	0.64×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 65	$32.83	1.2%	80	118.6	0.67×
P90 \| Death Grip (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 154	$30.25	0.4%	27	49.7	0.54×
P90 \| Death Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 139	$28.16	0.5%	32	55.1	0.58×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 60	$27.90	1.1%	101	127.8	0.79×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$27.26	2.9%	387	358.1	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$22.06	2.6%	403	389.5	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 24	$21.30	2.0%	228	318.3	0.72×
P90 \| Death Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 81	$19.04	0.5%	75	94.9	0.79×
P90 \| Death Grip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 79	$18.81	0.5%	80	96.4	0.83×
P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 75	$18.09	0.5%	88	101.8	0.86×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 90	$14.59	0.4%	64	84.9	0.75×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$9.27	0.4%	95	140.0	0.68×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 38	$7.89	0.5%	149	201.2	0.74×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$6.99	0.4%	155	208.1	0.74×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 34	$6.67	0.4%	154	221.9	0.69×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 24	$5.71	0.5%	216	316.0	0.68×
P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	10.8%	$3.25	0.8%	831	830.2	1.00×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/jaina, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$50.00$1,00620.12x7d

★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$50.00$1,00320.06x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert-pH-$50.00$87617.52x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$50.00$87217.45x1d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$50.00$62112.42x1d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$50.00$61912.39x4d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertPACONI$50.00$61312.26x3d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$50.00$61312.26x3d

M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restrictedAV | SHINON$50.00$55911.18x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Panther Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLightCODE TOROCHO$50.00$3.250.07x7m

P2000 | Panther Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLightCODE TOROCHO$50.00$3.250.07x9m

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red$50.00$54.271.09x9m

P2000 | Panther Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLightfoxikkk$50.00$3.250.07x18m

MP7 | Smoking Killsweapon · pinkfoxikkk$50.00$7.690.15x18m

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$50.00$6.150.12x19m

P2000 | Panther Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLightfoxikkk$50.00$3.250.07x19m

FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$50.00$81.561.63x19m

MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendaryfoxikkk$50.00$13.900.28x19m

AWP | Wildfireweapon · redfoxikkk$50.00$54.251.09x25m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$50.00	87.50%	80
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$50.00	87.69%	80
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$50.00	87.38%	80
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$50.00	87.72%	80
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$50.00	87.42%	80
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$50.00	87.71%	80
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$50.00	87.15%	80
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$50.00	87.16%	80
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$50.00	87.64%	80
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$50.00	87.76%	80
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$50.00	87.20%	80
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$50.00	87.96%	80
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$50.00	87.58%	80
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$50.00	87.77%	80
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$50.00	87.52%	80
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$50.00	87.71%	80
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$50.00	87.41%	80

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 26.3%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 6.6%gold 4.7%red 15.4%classified 14.5%pink 5.6%Covert 0.9%Ancient 1.0%violet 3.3%Legendary 4.0%uncommon 6.8%blueLight 10.8%best hit $1,006 (20.12x)