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Red Vault

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price
$12.31
Advertised RTP
92.47%
EV $11.38 from 156 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.89%
15K openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
79.77%±10.74902 openings
7 days
91.48%±2.6913.2K openings
30 days
91.89%±2.5215K openings
since tracking started
91.89%±2.5215K openings
68.5%81.8%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h90279.77%±10.7−2.5σodds
7d13.2K91.48%±2.69−0.8σodds
30d15K91.89%±2.52−0.5σodds
All15K91.89%±2.52−0.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values156 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1940.2%41.52.67×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1890.2%21.51.34×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1820.2%31.52.00×
P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1810.2%01.50.00×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1760.2%21.51.34×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1700.1%31.52.00×
AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1700.1%01.50.00×
M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1690.1%11.50.67×
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 10,000$1550.1%01.50.00×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1370.1%31.52.00×
AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1360.1%51.53.34×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1320.1%01.50.00×
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1290.1%01.50.00×
MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1240.1%11.50.67×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1220.1%51.53.34×
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 3,333$1210.3%64.51.34×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 3,333$1200.3%64.51.34×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 3,333$1200.3%14.50.22×
M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 3,333$1190.3%14.50.22×
MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1180.4%26.00.33×
FAMAS | Roll Cage (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1180.4%46.00.67×
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1170.4%56.00.84×
MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1160.4%56.00.84×
AK-47 | Jaguar (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1150.4%106.01.67×
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 2,500$1150.4%56.00.84×
P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1150.4%36.00.50×
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 2,500$1140.4%66.01.00×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1120.4%76.01.17×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1120.4%36.00.50×
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 2,500$1120.4%106.01.67×
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1110.4%56.00.84×
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1100.4%46.00.67×
FAMAS | Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1100.4%86.01.34×
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1080.4%46.00.67×
AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1070.4%106.01.67×
AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1070.4%76.01.17×
P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1060.4%26.00.33×
P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1060.4%56.00.84×
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1050.4%46.00.67×
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1050.4%66.01.00×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$1010.5%49.00.45×
AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$99.990.5%89.00.89×
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$97.190.5%99.01.00×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$95.110.5%69.00.67×
P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$93.860.5%79.00.78×
USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient1 in 1,667$92.950.5%129.01.34×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 1,667$92.610.5%59.00.56×
AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$92.360.5%109.01.11×
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$90.350.5%89.00.89×
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$89.990.5%109.01.11×
USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 1,667$89.450.5%89.00.89×
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$88.600.5%99.01.00×
P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$87.870.5%79.00.78×
MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$87.260.6%412.00.33×
P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$86.720.6%1212.01.00×
Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$86.680.6%1212.01.00×
AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient1 in 1,250$85.440.6%1212.01.00×
M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$85.150.6%1412.01.17×
Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$83.020.6%1512.01.25×
AK-47 | Jaguar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$82.630.6%1212.01.00×
M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$82.180.6%1012.00.84×
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$81.830.6%1012.00.84×
P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$81.800.6%612.00.50×
FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 1,250$81.280.6%1012.00.84×
Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$81.200.6%1912.01.59×
P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$80.040.6%912.00.75×
AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$79.960.6%2012.01.67×
AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 1,250$72.370.5%1312.01.09×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$71.210.5%1812.01.50×
AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$71.210.5%1612.01.34×
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare1 in 1,250$70.630.5%1412.01.17×
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$70.490.5%1312.01.09×
M4A4 | Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 1,250$69.700.5%1212.01.00×
MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$68.990.6%1215.00.80×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$68.180.6%1315.00.87×
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$67.670.6%1115.00.73×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$67.540.6%2115.01.40×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$67.340.6%1415.00.94×
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 1,000$66.060.6%1315.00.87×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 1,000$65.760.6%1215.00.80×
AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$63.260.6%2115.01.40×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 1,000$63.250.6%915.00.60×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$62.700.6%2615.01.74×
AWP | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 1,000$62.270.5%1815.01.20×
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$61.420.5%1315.00.87×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$59.950.5%1715.01.14×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$59.860.5%1615.01.07×
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$59.580.5%1815.01.20×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$58.930.5%1315.00.87×
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 909$55.980.5%1316.50.79×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 909$55.930.5%1216.50.73×
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 909$55.750.5%916.50.55×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 909$55.640.5%2216.51.34×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 909$55.010.5%1616.50.97×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 909$54.700.5%2316.51.40×
AWP | LongDog (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 909$54.530.5%2416.51.46×
USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 909$54.020.5%1716.51.03×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 909$53.580.5%1316.50.79×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 909$52.940.5%1416.50.85×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient1 in 909$52.270.5%2416.51.46×
AK-47 | Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 909$51.590.5%1716.51.03×
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 909$51.130.5%1916.51.15×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 909$50.460.5%1116.50.67×
FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 909$49.810.5%1616.50.97×
USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 909$49.750.5%2416.51.46×
M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 909$48.910.5%1416.50.85×
FAMAS | Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 909$48.810.5%2016.51.21×
MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 909$47.160.5%1716.51.03×
AK-47 | Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert1 in 909$46.960.5%1416.50.85×
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 909$46.700.5%1116.50.67×
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 909$46.400.4%1316.50.79×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 909$45.690.4%1316.50.79×
AWP | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 909$44.470.4%1316.50.79×
FAMAS | Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 909$44.420.4%1316.50.79×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 909$44.140.4%1616.50.97×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 909$43.150.4%1116.50.67×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 909$43.080.4%1316.50.79×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 909$43.030.4%1616.50.97×
AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 909$42.990.4%1916.51.15×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 909$42.140.4%1816.51.09×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 909$41.350.4%1616.50.97×
M4A4 | In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 909$38.360.4%2116.51.28×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 833$37.920.4%1518.00.84×
AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 909$37.060.4%1916.51.15×
MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 833$36.660.4%1318.00.72×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 833$36.400.4%1318.00.72×
MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 833$36.380.4%2218.01.22×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 833$36.230.4%2218.01.22×
AWP | LongDog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient1 in 833$35.900.4%2218.01.22×
USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 833$35.640.4%1418.00.78×
M4A4 | Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 769$35.510.4%1819.50.93×
USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 769$34.320.4%2019.51.03×
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 769$34.250.4%1619.50.82×
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 769$33.900.4%2219.51.13×
AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 769$33.750.4%1719.50.87×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 769$33.690.4%1119.50.57×
FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 667$33.240.4%2922.41.29×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 769$33.120.4%2719.51.39×
M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 769$32.960.4%3119.51.59×
AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 714$32.780.4%1821.00.86×
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 667$32.380.4%2922.41.29×
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 667$32.230.4%2422.41.07×
Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 667$31.930.4%2422.41.07×
AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 667$31.320.4%3022.41.34×
MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 667$31.000.4%2122.40.94×
M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 667$30.790.4%1922.40.85×
FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 667$30.040.4%2422.41.07×
Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 667$29.990.4%2122.40.94×
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 667$29.540.4%4122.41.83×
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 667$28.860.4%4222.41.87×
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 250$27.921.0%1959.90.32×
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 250$26.970.9%5059.90.84×
Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil)sticker · exotic18.0%$6.4610.2%2,6672693.90.99×
Sticker | Loving Eyes (Holo)sticker · #8847ff21.0%$5.4110.0%3,2043142.91.02×
Sticker | Infinite Diamond (Holo)sticker · Remarkable23.3%$3.477.1%3,6513487.11.05×
Sticker | Coral Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · remarkable24.4%$2.826.0%3,4603651.70.95×
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/red-vault, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertlegendary$12.31$81.076.59x
M4A4 | In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancientlegendary$12.31$38.363.12x
AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covertlegendary$12.31$42.213.43x
Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil)sticker · exotic$12.31$6.460.52x
Sticker | Coral Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · remarkable$12.31$2.820.23x
Sticker | Loving Eyes (Holo)sticker · #8847ff$12.31$5.380.44x
Sticker | Coral Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · remarkableA silly goose$12.31$2.820.23x
Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil)sticker · exotic$12.31$6.460.52x
Sticker | Coral Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · remarkable$12.31$2.820.23x
Sticker | Infinite Diamond (Holo)sticker · Remarkable$12.31$3.440.28x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.47%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC$12.3192.47%156
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC$12.2992.49%156
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC$12.6392.51%156
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC$12.6192.50%156
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$12.6692.47%156
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$12.6692.50%156
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$12.7492.48%156
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$12.8292.49%156
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$12.7992.49%156
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC$12.8192.53%156
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$13.0692.51%156
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC$13.1092.50%156
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC$13.1192.49%156
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC$13.0092.49%156
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC$13.0592.53%156
4 Nov, 04:45 UTC$13.1692.51%156
3 Nov, 03:49 UTC$13.0192.52%156
3 Nov, 02:05 UTC$13.0292.52%156
3 Nov, 01:40 UTC$13.0092.50%156
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC$13.0892.48%156
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 7.9%Ancient 2.8%red 2.0%rare 0.3%uncommon 0.2%Covert 0.1%exotic 18.0%#8847ff 21.0%Remarkable 23.3%remarkable 24.4%best hit —