CLASSIFIED

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$16.92

Advertised RTP

83.34%

EV $14.10 from 284 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.24%

4,996 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.39%±9.81768 openings

7 days

84.44%±4.124,347 openings

30 days

84.24%±3.844,996 openings

since tracking started

84.24%±3.844,996 openings

70.0%80.5%91.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	768	80.39%±9.81	−0.6σ	odds
7d	4,347	84.44%±4.12	+0.5σ	odds
30d	4,996	84.24%±3.84	+0.5σ	odds
All	4,996	84.24%±3.84	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values284 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,996 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$3,832	0.3%	0	0.0	—
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$3,798	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$1,782	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$1,130	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$1,058	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$1,050	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$997	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$872	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$833	0.1%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$747	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$584	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$511	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$470	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$385	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$372	0.1%	1	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$360	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$358	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$310	0.0%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$309	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$296	0.1%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$293	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$287	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$259	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$254	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$231	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$230	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$210	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$197	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$197	0.1%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$185	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$169	0.0%	1	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$162	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$150	0.0%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Serum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$147	0.1%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$146	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$145	0.1%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$144	0.1%	2	0.2	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$138	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$137	0.0%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$131	0.0%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$124	0.1%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$123	0.1%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 14,286	$122	0.1%	0	0.3	—
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 14,286	$116	0.1%	0	0.3	—
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$115	0.1%	0	0.3	—
Nova \| Bloomstick (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$113	0.1%	2	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$111	0.1%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$109	0.1%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$108	0.1%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$106	0.1%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$104	0.1%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$99.71	0.1%	1	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$97.30	0.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$95.92	0.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$95.73	0.1%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$92.71	0.1%	0	0.5	—
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$92.20	0.1%	2	0.5	—
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$86.92	0.1%	0	0.5	—
P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$85.10	0.1%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$84.62	0.1%	2	0.5	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 10,000	$83.75	0.1%	1	0.5	—
USP-S \| Orion (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$81.03	0.1%	0	0.5	—
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$80.62	0.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$80.12	0.1%	0	0.5	—
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$78.92	0.1%	0	0.5	—
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$77.66	0.1%	0	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$77.27	0.1%	1	0.5	—
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$75.55	0.1%	0	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$73.52	0.1%	1	1.0	—
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$73.38	0.1%	2	1.0	—
USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$72.94	0.1%	1	1.0	—
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$71.23	0.1%	1	1.0	—
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 3,333	$68.89	0.1%	1	1.5	0.67×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$68.52	0.1%	6	1.5	4.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$68.43	0.1%	2	1.5	1.33×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$67.21	0.1%	2	1.5	1.33×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$66.12	0.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$65.59	0.1%	2	1.5	1.33×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 3,333	$64.99	0.1%	1	1.5	0.67×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 3,333	$64.67	0.1%	1	1.5	0.67×
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$64.56	0.1%	3	1.5	2.00×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$63.81	0.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · Legendary	1 in 3,333	$62.60	0.1%	3	1.5	2.00×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$61.40	0.1%	2	1.5	1.33×
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$60.52	0.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$60.08	0.1%	2	1.5	1.33×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$59.42	0.2%	2	2.0	1.00×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$59.30	0.2%	3	2.0	1.50×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$58.97	0.2%	3	2.0	1.50×
MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$57.07	0.2%	1	2.0	0.50×
P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$56.98	0.2%	1	2.0	0.50×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$56.61	0.2%	0	2.0	0.00×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$56.09	0.2%	3	2.0	1.50×
P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$54.74	0.2%	3	2.0	1.50×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$54.71	0.2%	2	2.0	1.00×
USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$54.34	0.2%	2	2.0	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$54.04	0.2%	4	2.0	2.00×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$53.11	0.2%	1	2.0	0.50×
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$51.91	0.1%	1	2.0	0.50×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 2,500	$51.17	0.1%	2	2.0	1.00×
USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$50.06	0.1%	0	2.0	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$49.43	0.2%	3	2.5	1.20×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$48.91	0.2%	3	2.5	1.20×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 2,000	$48.69	0.2%	3	2.5	1.20×
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$48.68	0.2%	5	2.5	2.00×
USP-S \| Caiman (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$47.83	0.2%	4	2.5	1.60×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$47.56	0.2%	1	2.5	0.40×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$47.31	0.2%	4	2.5	1.60×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$47.09	0.2%	3	2.5	1.20×
USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$47.03	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$46.73	0.2%	3	2.5	1.20×
USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$46.41	0.2%	2	2.5	0.80×
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 2,000	$45.74	0.2%	1	2.5	0.40×
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$45.63	0.2%	5	2.5	2.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$45.25	0.2%	2	2.5	0.80×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$44.98	0.3%	6	5.0	1.20×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$44.91	0.3%	10	5.0	2.00×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$44.77	0.3%	5	5.0	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$44.76	0.3%	9	5.0	1.80×
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$43.82	0.3%	5	5.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$42.56	0.3%	5	5.0	1.00×
Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$42.37	0.3%	1	5.0	0.20×
P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$41.91	0.3%	6	5.0	1.20×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$41.77	0.3%	3	5.0	0.60×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$41.55	0.3%	3	5.0	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$41.31	0.3%	2	5.0	0.40×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 1,000	$40.11	0.3%	3	5.0	0.60×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 1,000	$39.00	0.3%	6	5.0	1.20×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$38.45	0.3%	6	5.0	1.20×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$38.07	0.3%	5	5.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$37.18	0.3%	2	5.0	0.40×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$36.71	0.3%	4	5.0	0.80×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$36.66	0.3%	3	5.0	0.60×
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$36.38	0.3%	5	5.0	1.00×
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$35.66	0.3%	5	5.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$34.35	0.2%	4	5.0	0.80×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$34.24	0.2%	6	5.0	1.20×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$33.55	0.2%	5	5.0	1.00×
P250 \| Undertow (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 1,000	$32.85	0.2%	6	5.0	1.20×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$32.44	0.2%	8	5.0	1.60×
P250 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$32.40	0.2%	5	5.0	1.00×
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$32.34	0.2%	4	5.0	0.80×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$32.15	0.2%	5	5.0	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$31.51	0.2%	3	5.0	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$30.57	0.2%	5	5.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$29.99	0.2%	4	5.0	0.80×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$29.96	0.2%	4	5.0	0.80×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,000	$28.95	0.2%	5	5.0	1.00×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,000	$28.65	0.2%	3	5.0	0.60×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,000	$28.52	0.2%	8	5.0	1.60×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,000	$27.97	0.2%	2	5.0	0.40×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$27.84	0.2%	7	5.0	1.40×
P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$27.52	0.2%	3	5.0	0.60×
P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$27.29	0.2%	10	5.0	2.00×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$26.56	0.2%	3	5.0	0.60×
P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$26.50	0.2%	5	5.0	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$26.22	0.2%	5	5.0	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$25.94	0.2%	6	5.0	1.20×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$25.83	0.2%	11	5.0	2.20×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$25.80	0.2%	2	5.0	0.40×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$25.64	0.2%	3	5.0	0.60×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$25.54	0.2%	7	5.0	1.40×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 500	$24.97	0.4%	8	10.0	0.80×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$24.25	0.3%	8	10.0	0.80×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 500	$23.63	0.3%	7	10.0	0.70×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$23.48	0.3%	10	10.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$23.44	0.3%	15	10.0	1.50×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 500	$22.84	0.3%	6	10.0	0.60×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$22.78	0.3%	15	10.0	1.50×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 500	$22.62	0.3%	6	10.0	0.60×
P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$22.58	0.3%	11	10.0	1.10×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$22.57	0.3%	11	10.0	1.10×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 500	$22.33	0.3%	7	10.0	0.70×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$22.29	0.3%	6	10.0	0.60×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$22.25	0.3%	12	10.0	1.20×
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 500	$22.15	0.3%	11	10.0	1.10×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$22.06	0.3%	8	10.0	0.80×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$21.34	0.3%	9	10.0	0.90×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$21.21	0.3%	7	10.0	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 500	$21.19	0.3%	11	10.0	1.10×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$21.17	0.3%	15	10.0	1.50×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 500	$20.97	0.3%	9	10.0	0.90×
P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 500	$20.83	0.3%	12	10.0	1.20×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$20.63	0.3%	7	10.0	0.70×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$20.57	0.3%	15	10.0	1.50×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$20.31	0.3%	12	10.0	1.20×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 500	$20.14	0.3%	9	10.0	0.90×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$19.79	0.7%	23	25.0	0.92×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$19.48	0.7%	30	25.0	1.20×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$19.25	0.7%	29	25.0	1.16×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$19.15	0.7%	31	25.0	1.24×
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 200	$18.90	0.7%	19	25.0	0.76×
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$18.49	0.7%	16	25.0	0.64×
P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$18.39	0.7%	35	25.0	1.40×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$18.29	0.6%	36	25.0	1.44×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$18.21	0.6%	22	25.0	0.88×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$18.15	0.6%	32	25.0	1.28×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$18.14	0.6%	31	25.0	1.24×
P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$18.12	0.6%	29	25.0	1.16×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$18.03	0.6%	29	25.0	1.16×
Nova \| Antique (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$17.88	0.6%	39	25.0	1.56×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$17.64	0.6%	21	25.0	0.84×
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$17.60	0.6%	28	25.0	1.12×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$17.45	0.6%	19	25.0	0.76×
Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$17.33	0.6%	36	25.0	1.44×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$17.15	0.6%	23	25.0	0.92×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$17.07	0.6%	28	25.0	1.12×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$16.90	0.6%	38	25.0	1.52×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 200	$16.67	0.6%	19	25.0	0.76×
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$16.66	0.6%	28	25.0	1.12×
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$15.82	0.6%	26	25.0	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$15.73	0.6%	21	25.0	0.84×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$15.48	0.5%	20	25.0	0.80×
Nova \| Antique (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 200	$15.38	0.5%	20	25.0	0.80×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$15.32	0.5%	16	25.0	0.64×
P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$15.29	0.5%	22	25.0	0.88×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 200	$15.27	0.5%	28	25.0	1.12×
P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 200	$15.27	0.5%	35	25.0	1.40×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$15.23	0.5%	31	25.0	1.24×
Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 200	$15.19	0.5%	32	25.0	1.28×
P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$15.05	0.5%	25	25.0	1.00×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$15.00	0.5%	23	25.0	0.92×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$14.69	0.8%	40	37.5	1.07×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 133	$14.67	0.8%	36	37.5	0.96×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 133	$14.63	0.8%	37	37.5	0.99×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$14.60	0.8%	41	37.5	1.09×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$14.59	0.8%	35	37.5	0.93×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 133	$14.55	0.8%	31	37.5	0.83×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$14.44	0.8%	44	37.5	1.17×
Nova \| Bloomstick (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$14.35	0.8%	30	37.5	0.80×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 133	$14.27	0.8%	37	37.5	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$14.27	0.8%	36	37.5	0.96×
MP9 \| Airlock (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$14.26	0.8%	39	37.5	1.04×
P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$14.24	0.8%	34	37.5	0.91×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 133	$14.24	0.8%	32	37.5	0.85×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 133	$14.22	0.8%	32	37.5	0.85×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 133	$14.20	0.8%	47	37.5	1.25×
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 133	$14.19	0.8%	39	37.5	1.04×
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$14.10	0.7%	40	37.5	1.07×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$13.82	1.0%	53	50.0	1.06×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$13.55	1.0%	49	50.0	0.98×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$13.54	1.0%	44	50.0	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$13.52	1.0%	58	50.0	1.16×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$13.46	1.0%	48	50.0	0.96×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$13.44	1.0%	45	50.0	0.90×
MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$13.12	0.9%	46	50.0	0.92×
P250 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$12.86	0.9%	51	50.0	1.02×
Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$12.65	0.9%	50	50.0	1.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$12.01	0.9%	54	50.0	1.08×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$11.79	0.8%	61	50.0	1.22×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$11.68	0.8%	49	50.0	0.98×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$11.54	0.8%	49	50.0	0.98×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$11.49	0.8%	49	50.0	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$11.33	0.8%	62	50.0	1.24×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$11.30	0.8%	47	50.0	0.94×
P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$11.16	0.8%	57	50.0	1.14×
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$11.14	0.8%	42	50.0	0.84×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$11.09	0.8%	48	50.0	0.96×
P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$10.76	0.8%	53	50.0	1.06×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$10.72	0.8%	47	50.0	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$10.70	0.8%	55	50.0	1.10×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$10.57	0.7%	41	50.0	0.82×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$10.49	0.7%	44	50.0	0.88×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$10.06	0.7%	41	50.0	0.82×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$9.86	0.7%	51	50.0	1.02×
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$9.77	0.7%	51	50.0	1.02×
P90 \| Shapewood (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$9.49	0.7%	43	50.0	0.86×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$9.28	0.7%	52	50.0	1.04×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$8.86	0.7%	40	52.0	0.77×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 95	$8.23	0.6%	57	52.5	1.09×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 77	$8.10	0.7%	64	64.9	0.99×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 67	$7.98	0.8%	68	74.9	0.91×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$6.32	0.9%	96	99.9	0.96×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$6.31	0.9%	96	99.9	0.96×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$5.88	0.8%	100	99.9	1.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$5.70	0.8%	93	99.9	0.93×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$5.70	0.8%	84	99.9	0.84×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$5.38	0.8%	104	99.9	1.04×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 50	$4.98	0.7%	97	99.9	0.97×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 50	$4.92	0.7%	106	99.9	1.06×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$4.87	0.7%	109	99.9	1.09×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Well-Worn)weapon · 4	1 in 50	$4.83	0.7%	95	99.9	0.95×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$1.79	0.3%	95	99.9	0.95×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$1.69	0.2%	89	99.9	0.89×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: classified), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified[BOT] Frederick Charles Krueger$16.92$83349.22x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified[BOT] Dr. Evil$16.92$13.820.82x10m

SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · classified[BOT] Anton Chigurh$16.92$14.590.86x10m

AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedwhitefox$16.92$4.870.29x10m

MP9 | Airlock (Field-Tested)weapon · classified[BOT] Darth Vader$16.92$14.260.84x10m

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified[BOT] Dr. Evil$16.92$10.700.63x10m

FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified[BOT] Anton Chigurh$16.92$36.712.17x10m

P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedwhitefox$16.92$18.391.09x10m

P90 | Shapewood (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6[BOT] Darth Vader$16.92$9.490.56x10m

SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink[BOT] Dr. Evil$16.92$5.700.34x10m

MP9 | Airlock (Field-Tested)weapon · classified[BOT] Anton Chigurh$16.92$14.260.84x10m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.34%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$16.92	83.34%	284

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed4 2.0%classified 67.2%Legendary 5.0%pink 15.0%Classified 2.5%#d32ce6 0.5%#d32ee6 7.8%best hit $833 (49.22x)