Premium Neo

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$18.40
Advertised RTP
83.31%
EV $15.33 from 131 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.35%
1,185 openings, odds method
Variance
4.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
42 openings · below min
7 days
80.57%±13.051,082 openings
30 days
80.35%±12.471,185 openings
since tracking started
80.35%±12.471,185 openings
-0.5%63.5%127.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4260.40%±66.2—odds
7d1,08280.57%±13.0−0.4σodds
30d1,18580.35%±12.5−0.5σodds
All1,18580.35%±12.5−0.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values131 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,185 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 50,000$1,7680.2%00.0—
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 50,000$1,7590.2%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 50,000$1,6690.2%00.0—
AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee61 in 50,000$1,5700.2%10.0—
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 50,000$1,4940.2%00.0—
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 50,000$1,4160.2%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$1,3190.2%00.0—
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 50,000$1,1630.2%00.0—
Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$9970.3%00.1—
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$9630.3%00.1—
M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$9500.3%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$8940.3%00.1—
AWP | BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$8130.3%00.1—
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$7660.2%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$7490.2%00.1—
AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$7450.2%00.1—
AK-47 | X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$7170.2%00.1—
AWP | Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 20,000$7140.2%00.1—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$7080.2%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$6930.2%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 20,000$6610.2%00.1—
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$6560.2%00.1—
AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$6520.2%00.1—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$6460.2%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$6450.2%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$6140.2%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$5900.2%00.1—
AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 20,000$5820.2%00.1—
AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$5720.2%00.1—
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 20,000$5690.2%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$5670.2%00.1—
AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$5530.2%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$5360.2%00.1—
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$5270.2%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$5250.2%00.1—
AWP | Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$5230.2%00.1—
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$5180.2%00.1—
M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$5040.2%00.1—
MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$5030.2%00.1—
M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$4990.2%00.1—
AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$4720.2%00.1—
AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$4690.2%00.1—
AK-47 | Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$4430.1%00.1—
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$4260.1%00.1—
AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$4170.1%00.1—
AWP | Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$4070.1%00.1—
MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$3960.1%00.1—
MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 20,000$3720.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 20,000$3670.1%00.1—
USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$3640.1%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$3600.1%00.1—
AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$3550.1%00.1—
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$3530.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 20,000$2970.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$2920.1%00.1—
AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$2880.1%00.1—
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$2860.1%00.1—
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$2710.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$2560.1%00.1—
AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$2520.1%00.1—
Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$2460.1%10.1—
Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$2440.1%00.1—
M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 20,000$2390.1%00.1—
★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 20,000$2320.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 20,000$2180.1%00.1—
AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$2090.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 20,000$2040.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$2030.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1950.1%00.1—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1880.1%00.1—
P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1830.1%00.1—
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1800.1%10.1—
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1760.1%00.1—
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1720.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1550.1%00.1—
Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1530.1%00.1—
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 10,000$1500.1%00.1—
Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 10,000$1430.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1420.1%00.1—
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1310.1%00.1—
AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1290.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Jaguar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1270.1%00.1—
AK-47 | First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$1170.1%00.1—
USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$1160.1%00.1—
R8 Revolver | Fade (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 10,000$1140.1%00.1—
AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 9,091$1120.1%00.1—
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 9,091$1070.1%00.1—
AK-47 | First Class (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 9,091$1060.1%00.1—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 9,091$1050.1%00.1—
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 200$89.772.9%65.91.01×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient1 in 200$87.472.9%55.90.84×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 200$84.652.8%65.91.01×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 200$82.432.7%65.91.01×
★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal (Battle-Scarred)gloves · Extraordinary1 in 200$80.002.6%75.91.18×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 200$77.442.5%35.90.51×
P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 200$76.312.5%65.91.01×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 200$75.052.4%75.91.18×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 200$70.362.3%145.92.36×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 200$64.242.1%45.90.68×
AWP | Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · Legendary1 in 200$63.562.1%45.90.68×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 200$59.131.9%15.90.17×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 200$54.161.8%125.92.03×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 200$51.851.7%55.90.84×
Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 200$51.581.7%85.91.35×
AWP | Electric Hive (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified1 in 192$50.141.7%76.21.14×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100$49.443.2%911.80.76×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100$47.873.1%1111.80.93×
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$46.113.0%811.80.68×
AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 100$35.192.3%911.80.76×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100$32.492.1%1311.81.10×
Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100$28.381.9%611.80.51×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 100$24.391.6%1111.80.93×
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 74$17.541.5%1316.00.81×
USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 48$15.642.1%3024.91.21×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 33$13.492.6%3635.51.01×
SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 33$11.632.3%4035.51.13×
SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 20$9.593.1%5759.20.96×
Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20$8.832.9%5359.20.89×
AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 20$8.552.8%5059.20.84×
SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20$8.142.7%6059.21.01×
AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 20$7.472.4%6659.21.11×
USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 20$7.162.3%6359.21.06×
AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 20$5.861.9%6359.21.06×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 20$4.311.4%6459.21.08×
USP-S | Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 20$3.901.3%5659.20.95×
AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 20$3.021.0%6959.21.16×
AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$2.320.8%4959.20.83×
P90 | Module (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$1.710.6%4459.20.74×
M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$1.460.5%7059.21.18×
XM1014 | Ziggy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 20$1.180.4%7659.21.28×
AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 20$0.890.3%5559.20.93×
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: premium-neo), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.31%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$18.4083.31%131
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.3%classified 15.1%#d32ee6 0.0%restricted 23.9%pink 0.0%mil spec 17.1%extraordinary 0.0%red 0.0%Ancient 1.0%covert knife 0.5%Extraordinary 0.5%Legendary 8.5%#8847ff 8.5%Classified 0.5%Mythical 5.0%Rare 5.0%violet 5.0%#4b69ff 5.0%best hit $1,570 (85.33x)