RESTRICTED

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$2.57
Advertised RTP
83.15%
EV $2.14 from 369 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.85%
10.7K openings, odds method
Variance
34.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
72.42%±35.421,065 openings
7 days
80.48%±12.878,069 openings
30 days
88.85%±11.1610.7K openings
since tracking started
88.85%±11.1610.7K openings
36.5%72.5%108.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,06572.42%±35.4−0.6σodds
7d8,06980.48%±12.9−0.4σodds
30d10.7K88.85%±11.2+1.0σodds
All10.7K88.85%±11.2+1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values369 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$2,4761.2%00.1—
M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$2,3871.1%10.1—
MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1,3430.6%00.1—
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1,2100.6%00.1—
Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$8840.4%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$6930.3%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$6450.3%10.1—
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$5970.3%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$5500.3%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$5490.3%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$5460.3%00.1—
CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$5430.3%00.1—
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$5400.3%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$5360.3%00.1—
Glock-18 | Brass (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$5200.2%00.1—
M4A4 | Daybreak (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 100,000$5070.2%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$4780.2%00.1—
Dual Berettas | Duelist (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$4640.2%00.1—
M4A4 | Daybreak (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$4480.2%00.1—
FAMAS | Spitfire (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$4370.2%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$4290.2%00.1—
Dual Berettas | Duelist (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$4280.2%00.1—
USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$3770.2%00.1—
Dual Berettas | Duelist (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$3600.2%00.1—
Dual Berettas | Duelist (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$3490.2%00.1—
SG 553 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$3440.2%00.1—
SG 553 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$3430.2%10.1—
SG 553 | Bulldozer (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted1 in 100,000$3140.1%00.1—
Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$3110.1%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$2830.1%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$2650.1%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$2450.1%00.1—
G3SG1 | Chronos (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$2430.1%00.1—
M4A4 | Daybreak (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$2380.1%00.1—
Glock-18 | Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$2260.2%00.2—
M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$2090.1%10.1—
Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1810.1%00.1—
MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1750.1%00.1—
Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1720.1%00.1—
MP9 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1420.1%00.1—
FAMAS | Styx (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1410.1%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1380.1%00.1—
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1370.1%00.1—
USP-S | Road Rash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1350.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1310.1%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Pilot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1280.1%00.1—
Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1260.1%00.1—
AK-47 | First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1250.1%00.1—
Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1230.1%00.1—
USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1210.1%00.1—
USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1130.1%00.1—
AK-47 | First Class (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1060.0%00.1—
MP9 | Bulldozer (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1040.0%00.1—
M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$1010.0%00.1—
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$87.170.1%00.2—
MAC-10 | Graven (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$87.070.1%00.2—
USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$86.430.1%10.2—
Desert Eagle | Pilot (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$84.750.1%00.2—
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$83.950.1%00.2—
M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$76.640.1%00.2—
USP-S | Road Rash (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$73.480.1%00.2—
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 50,000$68.610.1%00.2—
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$65.890.1%00.2—
Glock-18 | Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$64.330.1%00.2—
P90 | Death Grip (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$64.050.1%00.2—
M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$63.650.1%10.2—
FAMAS | Styx (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 50,000$61.730.1%00.2—
P2000 | Woodsman (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$61.490.1%00.2—
P250 | Splash (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$60.700.1%00.2—
P250 | Red Rock (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$60.580.1%00.2—
P250 | Red Rock (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$60.410.1%10.2—
SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$60.220.1%00.2—
P2000 | Woodsman (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$59.920.1%00.2—
Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 50,000$59.820.1%00.2—
Galil AR | Cerberus (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$59.230.1%00.2—
P90 | Death Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 50,000$57.960.1%10.2—
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$57.540.1%00.2—
M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$54.250.1%00.2—
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$52.640.0%00.2—
M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$51.870.0%20.2—
Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$50.450.0%00.2—
P2000 | Scorpion (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$50.310.0%00.2—
SSG 08 | Death's Head (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 33,333$49.400.1%00.3—
Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 33,333$48.140.1%00.3—
M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 33,333$46.830.1%20.3—
USP-S | Road Rash (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 33,333$46.490.1%00.3—
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 33,333$46.230.1%10.3—
Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 33,333$44.860.1%00.3—
P90 | Death Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 33,333$43.850.1%10.3—
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 33,333$43.020.1%00.3—
MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 33,333$41.860.1%00.3—
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 33,333$40.690.1%00.3—
USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 33,333$40.060.1%10.3—
P2000 | Woodsman (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 25,000$39.220.1%10.4—
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25,000$39.160.1%00.4—
M4A4 | Zirka (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 25,000$38.680.1%10.4—
SSG 08 | Death's Head (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 25,000$38.100.1%00.4—
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 25,000$37.420.1%00.4—
FAMAS | Spitfire (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 25,000$35.380.1%10.4—
Glock-18 | Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted1 in 25,000$34.150.1%10.4—
M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 25,000$33.960.1%00.4—
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25,000$33.550.1%10.4—
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 25,000$33.140.1%00.4—
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 25,000$32.530.1%20.4—
MAC-10 | Graven (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 25,000$32.150.1%00.4—
FAMAS | Spitfire (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 25,000$30.690.1%00.4—
USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 25,000$30.280.1%20.4—
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$29.230.1%10.5—
M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 20,000$29.200.1%20.5—
FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 20,000$28.970.1%10.5—
USP-S | Overgrowth (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$28.540.1%00.5—
P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$27.310.1%10.5—
MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 20,000$27.090.1%00.5—
MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$26.760.1%00.5—
M4A4 | Zirka (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$26.730.1%00.5—
MAC-10 | Graven (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$26.520.1%10.5—
SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$25.570.1%00.5—
Desert Eagle | Naga (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$25.440.1%10.5—
P250 | Splash (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$25.290.1%10.5—
MP9 | Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 10,000$24.550.1%21.11.86×
FAMAS | Valence (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$24.200.1%21.11.86×
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$24.120.1%01.10.00×
MAC-10 | Curse (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$23.030.1%21.11.86×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$22.430.1%11.10.93×
Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 10,000$21.880.1%01.10.00×
Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$21.360.1%21.11.86×
P2000 | Scorpion (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$21.300.1%21.11.86×
P90 | Virus (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 10,000$21.130.1%21.11.86×
PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$20.980.1%31.12.79×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$20.560.1%41.13.73×
MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$20.160.1%21.11.86×
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$20.020.1%11.10.93×
XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$19.810.1%01.60.00×
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$18.930.1%21.61.24×
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$18.200.1%11.60.62×
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$17.410.1%11.60.62×
PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$17.380.1%31.61.86×
FAMAS | Sergeant (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$16.590.1%31.61.86×
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$16.590.1%21.61.24×
Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 6,667$16.480.1%11.60.62×
Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted1 in 6,667$16.430.1%21.61.24×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 6,667$16.420.1%31.61.86×
MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 6,667$16.120.1%11.60.62×
MAC-10 | Tatter (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 6,667$16.080.1%11.60.62×
Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$15.910.1%01.60.00×
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$15.900.1%01.60.00×
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$15.670.1%21.61.24×
Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$15.500.1%31.61.86×
Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$15.430.1%31.61.86×
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$15.330.1%21.61.24×
MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 6,667$15.240.1%41.62.48×
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$14.960.1%22.10.93×
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$14.950.1%12.10.47×
P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 5,000$14.710.1%32.11.40×
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$14.660.1%62.12.79×
MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted1 in 5,000$14.610.1%32.11.40×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$14.280.1%12.10.47×
Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$13.970.1%12.10.47×
Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 5,000$13.960.1%22.10.93×
AUG | Torque (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$13.840.1%32.11.40×
Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$13.810.1%22.10.93×
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$13.420.1%32.11.40×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$13.040.1%52.12.33×
USP-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 5,000$13.000.1%22.10.93×
FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$12.940.1%02.10.00×
USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$12.840.1%12.10.47×
Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$12.760.1%42.11.86×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$12.720.1%22.10.93×
SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$12.470.1%22.10.93×
Glock-18 | Weasel (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 5,000$12.460.1%32.11.40×
Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$12.440.1%22.10.93×
Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 5,000$12.320.1%52.12.33×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 5,000$12.290.1%42.11.86×
Nova | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$12.140.1%22.10.93×
MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$11.930.1%32.11.40×
Nova | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted1 in 5,000$11.760.1%12.10.47×
P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 5,000$11.650.1%22.10.93×
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$11.630.1%32.11.40×
M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$11.560.1%42.11.86×
MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$11.470.1%22.10.93×
MAC-10 | Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$11.410.1%22.10.93×
MAC-10 | Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$11.390.1%12.10.47×
R8 Revolver | Reboot (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$11.230.1%02.10.00×
P2000 | Handgun (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$11.170.1%22.10.93×
FAMAS | Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 5,000$11.110.1%32.11.40×
Sawed-Off | Limelight (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$10.800.1%52.12.33×
MAC-10 | Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 5,000$10.770.1%12.10.47×
P90 | Blind Spot (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 5,000$10.650.1%32.11.40×
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 5,000$10.630.1%32.11.40×
AUG | Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$10.440.1%42.11.86×
MAC-10 | Tatter (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 5,000$10.440.1%52.12.33×
MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$10.300.1%22.10.93×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 5,000$10.270.1%22.10.93×
PP-Bizon | Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 5,000$10.110.1%42.11.86×
Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 2,000$9.980.2%95.41.68×
FAMAS | Pulse (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$9.800.2%45.40.75×
MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$9.760.2%75.41.30×
MP9 | Rose Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$9.540.2%25.40.37×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 2,000$9.380.2%65.41.12×
P90 | Blind Spot (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$9.340.2%105.41.86×
Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$9.290.2%35.40.56×
FAMAS | Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$9.260.2%75.41.30×
M4A4 | Griffin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$9.250.2%85.41.49×
P90 | Blind Spot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$9.190.2%35.40.56×
SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 2,000$8.920.2%35.40.56×
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$8.550.2%35.40.56×
AUG | Torque (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$8.500.2%45.40.75×
Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$8.450.2%45.40.75×
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$8.380.2%55.40.93×
UMP-45 | Scaffold (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$8.380.2%45.40.75×
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 2,000$8.260.2%55.40.93×
MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 2,000$8.220.2%45.40.75×
FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$8.140.2%65.41.12×
MP7 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted1 in 2,000$8.110.2%65.41.12×
MAC-10 | Tatter (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$8.020.2%75.41.30×
AUG | Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 2,000$7.830.2%75.41.30×
Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.760.2%35.40.56×
USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.720.2%75.41.30×
MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 2,000$7.680.2%35.40.56×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 2,000$7.680.2%35.40.56×
PP-Bizon | Antique (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.600.2%75.41.30×
USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.530.2%65.41.12×
Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.480.2%75.41.30×
M4A4 | Griffin (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.310.2%65.41.12×
XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 2,000$7.300.2%55.40.93×
PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.250.2%35.40.56×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 2,000$7.250.2%05.40.00×
SCAR-20 | Powercore (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.230.2%55.40.93×
MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.210.2%45.40.75×
SG 553 | Triarch (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.210.2%75.41.30×
Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.130.2%85.41.49×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.120.2%45.40.75×
CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.070.2%55.40.93×
MP7 | Impire (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$7.010.2%65.41.12×
Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$6.950.2%55.40.93×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 2,000$6.870.2%65.41.12×
XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$6.830.2%105.41.86×
FAMAS | Styx (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$6.760.2%45.40.75×
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$6.720.2%55.40.93×
Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$6.700.2%75.41.30×
P90 | Chopper (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$6.630.2%55.40.93×
USP-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 2,000$6.600.2%55.40.93×
AWP | Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 2,000$6.360.1%25.40.37×
Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$6.330.1%65.41.12×
MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 2,000$6.300.1%75.41.30×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 2,000$6.300.1%25.40.37×
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$6.290.1%25.40.37×
CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 2,000$6.160.1%45.40.75×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$6.120.1%75.41.30×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Stinger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 2,000$6.020.1%45.40.75×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 2,000$5.940.1%75.41.30×
Dual Berettas | Marina (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$5.920.1%85.41.49×
CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$5.910.1%85.41.49×
USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 2,000$5.850.1%55.40.93×
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 2,000$5.830.1%85.41.49×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 2,000$5.700.1%45.40.75×
AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$5.560.1%55.40.93×
Desert Eagle | Naga (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$5.560.1%65.41.12×
AUG | Aristocrat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 2,000$5.530.1%75.41.30×
FAMAS | Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$5.470.1%25.40.37×
Nova | Rising Skull (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$5.180.1%65.41.12×
Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$5.160.1%65.41.12×
Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$5.160.1%25.40.37×
FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$5.070.1%75.41.30×
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$5.070.1%45.40.75×
MAC-10 | Last Dive (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$5.060.1%35.40.56×
StatTrak™ Nova | Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 2,000$5.060.1%55.40.93×
CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 2,000$5.020.1%95.41.68×
FAMAS | Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 2,000$5.010.1%35.40.56×
XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4.940.2%1310.71.21×
CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 1,000$4.910.2%910.70.84×
P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4.860.2%910.70.84×
AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 1,000$4.790.2%710.70.65×
Nova | Rising Skull (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted1 in 1,000$4.740.2%910.70.84×
MAC-10 | Malachite (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4.620.2%1310.71.21×
Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 1,000$4.610.2%1410.71.30×
Glock-18 | Grinder (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 1,000$4.600.2%1310.71.21×
Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4.590.2%1210.71.12×
XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 1,000$4.550.2%1110.71.02×
M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4.410.2%910.70.84×
M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4.390.2%910.70.84×
Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 1,000$4.290.2%910.70.84×
P250 | Supernova (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 1,000$4.260.2%1110.71.02×
StatTrak™ Nova | Gila (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4.220.2%1610.71.49×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4.210.2%1810.71.68×
P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4.200.2%1210.71.12×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4.180.2%1510.71.40×
Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4.160.2%1410.71.30×
USP-S | Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 1,000$4.140.2%1310.71.21×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4.110.2%810.70.75×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 1,000$4.080.2%1210.71.12×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$4.050.2%1510.71.40×
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 500$3.820.4%2121.50.98×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 500$3.800.4%1021.50.47×
R8 Revolver | Reboot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 500$3.780.4%3021.51.40×
UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 500$3.750.4%2321.51.07×
SG 553 | Phantom (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 500$3.740.4%2121.50.98×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 500$3.650.3%1821.50.84×
UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 500$3.620.3%1921.50.88×
Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Minimal Wear)weapon · 31 in 500$3.600.3%2321.51.07×
SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 500$3.530.3%2321.51.07×
Nova | Wild Six (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 500$3.520.3%2421.51.12×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 500$3.510.3%2021.50.93×
M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 500$3.460.3%1921.50.88×
AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 500$3.400.3%1621.50.75×
SG 553 | Pulse (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted1 in 500$3.400.3%1721.50.79×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 500$3.340.3%2821.51.30×
StatTrak™ Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 500$3.340.3%2021.50.93×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Stinger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 500$3.320.3%1521.50.70×
XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 500$3.300.3%2421.51.12×
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 500$3.280.3%2721.51.26×
MAG-7 | Praetorian (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 500$3.260.3%2021.50.93×
AWP | Worm God (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 500$3.200.3%1621.50.75×
MP7 | Impire (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 500$3.120.3%1321.50.61×
AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 500$3.110.3%1821.50.84×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 500$3.100.3%3321.51.54×
StatTrak™ Nova | Koi (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 500$3.010.3%2121.50.98×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 333$2.940.4%3232.20.99×
SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 333$2.850.4%2232.20.68×
AUG | Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 333$2.840.4%2932.20.90×
Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 333$2.780.4%3532.21.09×
MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 333$2.770.4%2532.20.78×
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 333$2.710.4%2832.20.87×
Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 333$2.690.4%3332.21.02×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 333$2.670.4%4432.21.37×
AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 333$2.660.4%3732.21.15×
Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 333$2.600.4%3432.21.06×
Glock-18 | Weasel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 333$2.550.4%4132.21.27×
AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 333$2.510.4%3632.21.12×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 200$2.440.6%5153.70.95×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 200$2.310.5%5653.71.04×
StatTrak™ Nova | Gila (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 200$2.290.5%5853.71.08×
P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 200$2.260.5%4353.70.80×
P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 200$2.140.5%3153.70.58×
XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 200$2.040.5%5953.71.10×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Stinger (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 200$2.030.5%4753.70.88×
StatTrak™ Nova | Gila (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 200$2.020.5%5753.71.06×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 200$2.000.5%5253.70.97×
Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100$1.950.9%96107.40.89×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 100$1.930.9%104107.40.97×
P250 | Wingshot (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 100$1.820.9%94107.40.88×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 100$1.790.8%112107.41.04×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 100$1.780.8%120107.41.12×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Stinger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 100$1.780.8%98107.40.91×
MP7 | Special Delivery (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 100$1.760.8%121107.41.13×
AUG | Aristocrat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 100$1.760.8%103107.40.96×
Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 100$1.750.8%100107.40.93×
P90 | Chopper (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted1 in 100$1.620.8%124107.41.15×
AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100$1.600.7%102107.40.95×
XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · 31 in 100$1.540.7%119107.41.11×
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100$1.510.7%102107.40.95×
P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 50$1.471.4%201214.70.94×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.441.3%222214.71.03×
SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 50$1.441.3%216214.71.01×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.411.3%218214.71.02×
Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 50$1.401.3%199214.70.93×
MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 50$1.391.3%225214.71.05×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.381.3%216214.71.01×
UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 50$1.371.3%204214.70.95×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.361.3%241215.31.12×
Negev | Power Loader (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.311.2%223215.81.03×
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 48$1.291.3%208225.50.92×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 48$1.231.2%234225.51.04×
Nova | Wild Six (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 48$1.221.2%223225.50.99×
P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 17$1.173.3%622644.20.97×
Negev | Lionfish (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 17$1.153.2%616644.20.96×
AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 11$0.843.5%1,016966.21.05×
Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 11$0.532.2%949966.20.98×
Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff10.0%$0.462.2%1,0761073.61.00×
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: restricted), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.15%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$2.5783.15%369
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 1.2%restricted 39.2%#8847ff 31.7%Restricted 1.4%violet 12.2%Mythical 14.3%best hit $2,387 (928.6x)