COVERT

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$100.00

Advertised RTP

83.32%

EV $83.32 from 196 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.25%

1,198 openings, odds method

Variance

3.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.40%±29.59162 openings

7 days

86.78%±16.16543 openings

30 days

89.25%±10.881,198 openings

since tracking started

89.25%±10.881,198 openings

66.0%96.2%126.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	162	96.40%±29.6	+0.9σ	odds
7d	543	86.78%±16.2	+0.4σ	odds
30d	1,198	89.25%±10.9	+1.1σ	odds
All	1,198	89.25%±10.9	+1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values196 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,198 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$9,600	1.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$7,900	0.9%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$7,250	0.9%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$6,700	0.8%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$5,350	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$4,300	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,900	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,850	0.3%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,300	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,650	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,400	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,300	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,200	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,200	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,100	0.3%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,050	0.3%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,000	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$920	0.2%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$810	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$800	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$750	0.2%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$700	0.3%	2	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$574	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$550	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| LongDog (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$550	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$550	0.2%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$535	0.2%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 3,333	$520	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$500	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$500	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$500	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$375	0.2%	0	0.6	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$360	0.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$360	0.2%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$350	0.2%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$312	0.2%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$309	0.2%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$300	0.2%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$300	0.2%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$299	0.4%	1	1.2	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$290	0.3%	1	1.2	0.83×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$280	0.3%	4	1.2	3.34×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$278	0.3%	1	1.2	0.83×
P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$275	0.3%	3	1.2	2.50×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$273	0.3%	2	1.2	1.67×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$270	0.3%	1	1.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$268	0.3%	2	1.2	1.67×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$265	0.3%	2	1.2	1.67×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$260	0.3%	1	1.2	0.83×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$260	0.3%	3	1.2	2.50×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$255	0.3%	1	1.2	0.83×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$250	0.3%	1	1.2	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic	1 in 1,000	$250	0.3%	1	1.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$250	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 1,000	$248	0.3%	1	1.2	0.83×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$242	0.3%	2	1.2	1.67×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,000	$241	0.3%	3	1.2	2.50×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$241	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$236	0.3%	2	1.2	1.67×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$235	0.3%	2	1.2	1.67×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$234	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$231	0.3%	3	1.2	2.50×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$230	0.3%	2	1.2	1.67×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$228	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$226	0.3%	2	1.2	1.67×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$225	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$219	0.3%	2	1.2	1.67×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$215	0.3%	2	1.2	1.67×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$205	0.2%	1	1.2	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 1,000	$205	0.2%	3	1.2	2.50×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$204	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$202	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$200	0.2%	1	1.2	0.83×
AWP \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$200	0.2%	2	1.2	1.67×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$199	0.2%	2	1.2	1.67×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$195	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,000	$193	0.2%	1	1.2	0.83×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$192	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$189	0.2%	2	1.2	1.67×
AWP \| CMYK (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,000	$181	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$181	0.2%	3	1.2	2.50×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$175	0.2%	1	1.2	0.83×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$174	0.2%	2	1.2	1.67×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$173	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$170	0.2%	2	1.2	1.67×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$164	0.2%	1	1.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$164	0.2%	2	1.2	1.67×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$163	0.2%	4	1.2	3.34×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$162	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$160	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$159	0.2%	1	1.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$156	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$154	0.2%	3	1.2	2.50×
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$153	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 1,000	$151	0.2%	1	1.2	0.83×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 769	$150	0.2%	3	1.6	1.93×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$150	0.4%	3	2.4	1.25×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$145	0.3%	1	2.4	0.42×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$144	0.3%	1	2.4	0.42×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$143	0.3%	5	2.4	2.09×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$143	0.3%	0	2.4	0.00×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$142	0.3%	1	2.4	0.42×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$142	0.3%	3	2.4	1.25×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$140	0.3%	3	2.4	1.25×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$139	0.3%	2	2.4	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$138	0.3%	7	2.4	2.92×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$138	0.3%	4	2.4	1.67×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$137	0.3%	5	2.4	2.09×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 500	$136	0.3%	1	2.4	0.42×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$135	0.3%	1	2.4	0.42×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$135	0.3%	0	2.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$134	0.3%	2	2.4	0.83×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 500	$132	0.3%	2	2.4	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$132	0.3%	1	2.4	0.42×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 500	$132	0.3%	2	2.4	0.83×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$129	0.3%	1	2.4	0.42×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$128	0.3%	3	2.4	1.25×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 500	$127	0.3%	2	2.4	0.83×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$127	0.3%	2	2.4	0.83×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 500	$126	0.3%	1	2.4	0.42×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$125	0.3%	1	2.4	0.42×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$124	0.3%	5	2.4	2.09×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 500	$123	0.3%	2	2.4	0.83×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 200	$123	0.7%	5	6.0	0.83×
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$123	0.7%	6	6.0	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$121	0.7%	5	6.0	0.83×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$119	0.7%	7	6.0	1.17×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$114	0.7%	4	6.0	0.67×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$112	0.7%	8	6.0	1.34×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 200	$111	0.7%	9	6.0	1.50×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 200	$109	0.7%	7	6.0	1.17×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$106	0.6%	4	6.0	0.67×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$106	1.3%	9	12.0	0.75×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$105	1.3%	13	12.0	1.09×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$105	1.3%	15	12.0	1.25×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$104	1.2%	15	12.0	1.25×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$103	1.2%	12	12.0	1.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$101	1.2%	9	12.0	0.75×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$100	1.2%	15	12.0	1.25×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 100	$100	1.2%	15	12.0	1.25×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 80	$99.22	1.5%	15	15.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 80	$96.25	1.4%	9	15.0	0.60×
CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Covert	1 in 80	$92.16	1.4%	14	15.0	0.93×
AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$90.00	1.4%	11	15.0	0.73×
CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$90.00	1.4%	22	15.0	1.47×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$90.00	1.4%	14	15.0	0.93×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$85.00	1.3%	14	15.0	0.93×
AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 80	$85.00	1.3%	18	15.0	1.20×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$85.00	1.3%	14	15.0	0.93×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$85.00	1.3%	25	15.0	1.67×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$85.00	1.3%	14	15.0	0.93×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$83.00	1.2%	25	15.0	1.67×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 80	$65.00	1.0%	14	15.0	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 80	$65.00	1.0%	21	15.0	1.40×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 80	$65.00	1.0%	13	15.0	0.87×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 80	$65.00	1.0%	17	15.0	1.14×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$61.04	0.9%	12	15.0	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$61.01	0.9%	13	15.0	0.87×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$60.00	0.9%	14	15.0	0.93×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$60.00	0.9%	11	15.0	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$60.00	0.9%	15	15.0	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$60.00	0.9%	17	15.0	1.14×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 80	$60.00	0.9%	13	15.0	0.87×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 80	$60.00	0.9%	11	15.0	0.73×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$55.00	0.8%	17	15.0	1.14×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 80	$55.00	0.8%	14	15.0	0.93×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 80	$55.00	0.8%	18	15.0	1.20×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$45.00	0.7%	18	15.0	1.20×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$45.00	0.7%	22	15.0	1.47×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$45.00	0.7%	16	15.0	1.07×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 80	$45.00	0.7%	12	15.0	0.80×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 80	$45.00	0.7%	13	15.0	0.87×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 80	$45.00	0.7%	14	15.0	0.93×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 80	$43.00	0.6%	16	15.0	1.07×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$42.00	0.6%	14	15.0	0.93×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$40.00	0.6%	11	15.0	0.73×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 80	$40.00	0.6%	14	15.0	0.93×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$40.00	0.6%	14	15.0	0.93×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 80	$40.00	0.6%	12	15.0	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 80	$40.00	0.6%	9	15.0	0.60×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 80	$38.00	0.6%	17	15.0	1.14×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 80	$36.00	0.5%	10	15.0	0.67×
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 80	$35.00	0.5%	20	15.0	1.34×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$35.00	0.5%	14	15.0	0.93×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$35.00	0.5%	15	15.0	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$35.00	0.5%	14	15.0	0.93×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$35.00	0.5%	13	15.0	0.87×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 77	$34.00	0.5%	12	15.6	0.77×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$33.00	0.8%	22	24.0	0.92×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 77	$33.00	0.5%	14	15.6	0.90×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 50	$32.00	0.8%	18	24.0	0.75×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 50	$32.00	0.8%	26	24.0	1.09×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$32.00	0.8%	21	24.0	0.88×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$30.00	0.7%	26	24.0	1.09×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$30.00	0.7%	21	24.0	0.88×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 50	$30.00	0.7%	25	24.0	1.04×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: covert), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert[BOT] Dr. Evil$100$7,25072.50x7d

AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert[BOT] Thanos$100$2,85028.50x6h

AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert[BOT] Bane$100$1,10011.00x7d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert[BOT] Magneto$100$1,05010.50x7d

AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMutisaugustasm$100$9209.20x6h

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert[BOT] Anton Chigurh$100$7507.50x6d

AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert[BOT] The Joker$100$7007.00x7d

AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert[BOT] Hans Landa$100$7007.00x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert[BOT] Frederick Charles Krueger$100$1641.64x6h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare[BOT] Hans Landa$100$45.000.45x6h

StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert[BOT] Magneto$100$32.000.32x6h

Galil AR | Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert[BOT] Mr. Blonde$100$1341.34x6h

AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red[BOT] Voldemort$100$45.000.45x6h

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covertDave$100$60.000.60x6h

USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red[BOT] T-1000$100$38.000.38x6h

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient[BOT] Magneto$100$35.000.35x6h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert[BOT] Dr. Evil$100$32.000.32x6h

AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient[BOT] Frederick Charles Krueger$100$65.000.65x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.32%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$100	83.32%	196

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 67.0%red 11.7%#eb4b4b 1.7%epic 0.2%rare 2.9%Ancient 10.0%Covert 5.2%uncommon 1.3%best hit $7,250 (72.50x)